As the Government prepares to unveil what it has branded a “responsible” Budget focused on “getting the books in order”, Māori economists, advocates and politicians are warning Māori communities could once again bear the brunt of tighter spending and continued cuts.
Budget 2026 is expected to be one of the tightest in recent years, with the Government forecasting a $13.9 billion deficit this financial year while limiting new spending to around $2.1 billion, much of it already committed.
At the same time, millions are still expected to flow into infrastructure projects including roads, schools, hospitals and defence.
The coalition Government has framed the Budget as one focused on fiscal repair amid global economic uncertainty and ongoing instability in the Middle East.
But Māori advocates say for many whānau already struggling with rising living costs, housing pressures and cuts to Māori-focused initiatives, the Budget signals more hardship ahead.
Indigenouse rights advocate, Tina Ngata, says the Government’s economic direction is not accidental, but ideological.
“What we see really clearly and most explicitly in a budget is that colonialism is an economic project,” Ngata said.
“And it’s always been about extracting the most that it can from indigenous people with the least amount of expenditure.”
Ngata says Māori communities have already seen deep reductions across housing, health, education, conservation and te reo Māori initiatives over the past two Budgets.
For example, last year’s Budget saw tens of millions of dollars cut from Māori housing programmes, including Whai Kāinga Whai Oranga, with critics arguing Māori housing initiatives were effectively dismantled under the Government’s wider housing overhaul.
“The cuts towards targeted Māori programmes which address the racism of the last century or more, that is unprecedented in post-settlement economies, so we’ve had more taken away than we have had at any other time.”
She also criticised what she described as highly visible “lolly scramble” funding announcements for Māori initiatives, arguing they can obscure wider cuts happening across te ao Māori.
“They should be funding our Māori institutions. They should be funding our arts and our performances, but what they shouldn’t do is use that as a cloak to obscure the defunding happening everywhere else.”
Ngata says the Government’s repeated defence that support should be “needs-based” rather than Māori-specific ignores both Treaty obligations and the historical causes of inequity.
“The Crown creates the need.”
“And then the Crown positions itself as the source of what it takes to address that need, while the Crown was the one that created the need in the first place.”
‘He aha tā rātou te whakahoki mai?’
Economist and founder of RŌA Consulting, Te Ahooterangi Pihama, says the wider impacts of funding cuts are already being felt across Māori communities and Māori businesses.
“Tēnei mea te whakawhāiti, te poro i ngā pūtea e hāngai ana ki tō tātou hapori Māori, me titiro whānui ki te horopaki,” Pihama said.
“Nō reira ki te taha o ngā iwi kua whakaiti ngā pūtea hauora, kua whakawhāiti ngā kirimana, nā konā ka iti ake ngā tautoko ki ngā whānau e noho rawa kore ana.”
He says cuts to Māori economic development and Māori services ultimately place greater strain back onto whānau.
“Inā kāre tātou whānau nei e mōhio ana me pēhea te hoko i te mīraka me te parāoa, kei whea tātou haere ai?”
Pihama also raised concerns about billions of dollars in funding signalled by the Government ahead of the election year, saying there remains uncertainty around where that money will ultimately be directed.
“He tino tūraru tāku ki te $4.7 piriona tāra, te takiwā o te $1.2 piriona tāra ia tau, kāore anō kia tino whakatau te Kāwanatanga me pēhea e toha ai aua pūtea.”
“Ko taku tino āwangawanga ki tērā, ki tētahi ringa o te Kāwanatanga e kutikuti haere ana i ngā āheinga o ngā whānau rawa kore, ā tātou te iwi Māori.”
He also questioned whether any future investment would genuinely restore previous Māori funding levels.
“He aha tā rātou te whakahoki mai? He whakahoki mai rānei ki te rahinga o mua, he whakahokinga mai rānei kia whakaiti, kia whakangū i te reo Māori?”
‘When there is a Willis, there is no way’ - Rawiri Waititi
Opposition parties are also warning Māori communities to expect little from Thursday’s Budget.
Willie Jackson says Māori-specific investment has continued to decline under the coalition Government.
“I think I’m sure they’ll be a negative budget for Māori, that was the case last year, and I think we’ll get nothing again this year,” Jackson said.
“And that’s a shame because you’ve got a minister just not advocating in terms of more funding for Māori and housing, health, jobs.”
Jackson said organisations and iwi had been raising concerns directly with Labour about reductions in Māori housing, Māori health and Māori broadcasting support.
“We still need that targeted funding in the Māori housing area, which is what we targeted before in the jobs area, with areas like Māori trade training.”
Te Pāti Māori co-leader, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, said Māori had already experienced repeated cuts under the coalition Government.
“Nothing. I think the same thing we’ve always had in this government, they don’t care about Māori,” she said when asked what Māori should expect from the Budget.
“We’ve got a government that’s only here, as we’ve seen in the headlines today, that’s representative of the corporates and the rich.”
Te Pāti Māori co-leader, Rawiri Waititi, made a pointed quip to the Finance Minister’s budget.
“Where there’s a Willis, there’s no way,” Waititi said.
“And so it’ll probably be the Mā is White budget.”
“What we’re seeing is our taxes are being used to profit those who control 50 percent of this country’s wealth.”
Green Party co-leader, Marama Davidson, said Māori communities shouldn’t hold their breath.
“Māori won’t be surprised after an entire term of being trashed by this government,” Davidson said.
“Māori might expect that there will be further cuts in fact to the initiatives that target those, iwi Māori, who are really struggling.”
However, the Government rejects suggestions Māori are being left behind.
Nicola Willis says Māori can expect a Budget focused on economic growth and opportunity.
“Māori should expect a budget that takes responsibility for ensuring there’s the conditions for them to succeed, with more jobs in the economy, more opportunities to get ahead, and that invests in the public services that Māori rely on.”
Tama Potaka says the Government says he is resolute in providing Māori economic development through targeted initiatives and regional investment.
“I’m pretty committed to making sure that we continue to support Māori economic development,” Potaka said.
“Some of the mahi that we’ve been doing around the Māori development funds, supporting various community resilience and other economic development initiatives aligned with Tōnui Māori, our Going for Growth with Māori strategy,” Potaka said.
Budget 2026 will be unveiled on Thursday at 2pm.
