Incumbent MP Tākuta Ferris could lose his electorate seat of Te Tai Tonga, with a new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll showing him trailing behind every other candidate in the country’s largest electorate at 15% support, behind Labour’s Mananui Ramsden with 30%, Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch with 17%, and Green Party candidate Lisa Te Morenga with 16%.
All four candidates will go head-to-head in a live debate tonight at 7pm on the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page, Te Ao Māori News YouTube page, Whakaata Māori, and MĀORI+, moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman.
The exclusive poll results were commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series.
The survey was conducted from September 14 to September 24 by Curia Market Research, which also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.
The poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older in Te Tai Tonga, including 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% with a 95% confidence level.
Returned support for Labour as Ferris struggles
The poll indicates that Te Tai Tonga could swing back to Labour if voters deliver a November 7 election result close to their preferences recorded during the survey period.
In modern times, the Māori electorate, covering Te Waipounamu, Rakiura, Wharekauri, and parts of Te Ika-a-Māui, including Te Whanganui-a-Tara, has most often been held by Labour MPs from the Tirikatene dynasty for 72 years, with only brief periods of representation by New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori MPs.
However, Tākuta Ferris, who defeated long-serving MP Rino Tirikatene in the 2023 election, is running as an independent following a dispute within Te Pāti Māori that led to his departure from the party.
Candidate support and approval
The poll produced mixed views on Ferris:
- Approval Ratings: Despite low voting preference, Ferris received positive net approval: 29% said he had done a good job and 11% said he had done a poor job, giving a net rating of +18 percentage points.
- Demographics: Voters aged 18–39 were significantly more likely to rate Ferris as good (37%) compared with those aged 60 and older (15%). Conversely, voters over 60 were more likely to rate him as poor (24%) compared with younger demographics (8%).
- Gender & Age Splits: Wāhine were more likely than tāne to support Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga (21% vs 10%). Her support was highest among those aged 18–39 (24%) compared with older age brackets.
When asked how important it is for an electorate MP to stand up to their party, 3% rated it very important, 43% somewhat important, 14% not that important, and 3% not at all important.
Party vote preferences
The poll showed Labour leading party vote preferences at 28%, followed by the Greens (14%), Te Pāti Māori (11%), New Zealand First (6%), National (6%), Opportunity (4%), and Free Palestine (4%), with 10% of voters remaining undecided.
The data also highlights a generational divide, showing that Labour support was lower among 18–39-year-olds (16%) than among 40–59-year-olds (42%) and those aged 60 and older (37%).
Honouring Te Tiriti Te Tai Tonga’s top priority
Te Tai Tonga voters were asked to rate their highest priorities for improving Māori outcomes.
Honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi ranked highest at 30%, followed by reducing poverty and homelessness (24%), improving health and education outcomes (20%), mental health and addiction support (13%), and addressing Māori unemployment (10%).
The full debate with all four candidates will broadcast tonight at 7pm live on Te Ao Māori News Facebook page, Te Ao Māori News YouTube page, Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman.
