Nationwide level 4 lockdown could be the breaking point for some jobs and businesses. That's the view of leading Māori economist and Te Au Rangahau co-director Dr Matthew Roskruge.
He says the cumulative effects of 18 months of Covid-19 restrictions might see some in tourism and hospitality call it quits.
'It'll be the thing that pushes them too far. At what point do you go, 'look, tourists aren't going to be back here for another year and a half. I need to shut down my tourism business.' Or 'this is getting too hard to keep my workers on with moving in and out of lockdowns, I'm gonna have to let them go,' he told Te Ao Tapatahi.
Roskruge, an associate professor at Massey University says while the necessity of the lockdown is evident, the immediacy of it might have caught business by surprise.
“Up until this point, we'd felt like we got a bit of warning, the lockdowns were a bit more gentle. This one's level four straightaway. It makes it difficult to plan if you're a business and makes it difficult to organise trades, organise clients.”
The Te Au Rangahau co-director says while the government’s wage subsidy will offer much-needed relief for many, it won’t counteract the costs associated with freezing business operations.
“There were 50,000 tourists in Queenstown from New Zealand in its peak season at the moment. Certainly, if this was closer to the offseason, it might be a bit more welcome. It [wage subsidy] is a big stretch for a silver lining," he said.
'Seek help'
Roskruge warned those likely to be hardest hit by lockdown would be the poor and renters.
Last year, homeowners saw the value of their properties increase by 20 per cent on average, while many employees saw wages pared back to the $585.80 weekly wage subsidy.
“One of the main ways governments are managing this crisis is to put a lot of liquidity, a lot of money into the economy. Inevitably, the people who benefit most from that are people who are in a position to take that funding,” he said.
Last year the government negotiated payment freezes for mortgage holders but targeted relief for renters was not part of the $50 billion Covid-19 Response and Recovery Fund.
Roskruge said the Ministry of Social Development and other government agencies need to be more responsive to those in need particularly if this lockdown goes beyond one week.
“I'm hearing government agencies are looking at being a lot more responsive around people who need support for energy payments, rent, whatever it happens to be. If people are doing it tough, the best thing they can do is go and tell somebody, ring MSD, WINZ, whoever. I mean, don't just sit there worrying about your bills, ring somebody and complain and keep ringing.” Roskruge said.