Vernon Small is a former business and political journalist with more than two decades in the press gallery, who until recently was an advisor to attorney general David Parker.
OPINION: He’s in his happy place, campaigning and doing it “his way”.
On the stump he is using his ageing star power to draw reasonable crowds, allowing him to announce daily that “the surge” is continuing.
For the candidate who is longest in the tooth by a provincial mile, he has an impressive social media game.
In the past couple of weeks we have been treated to his rendition, delivered to an empty theatre, of Kipling’s famous poem “If”. Then there was the short video of him in a stockman’s oilskin and hat on horseback, reminding us that this election is not his “first rodeo”.
Both start with a melodramatic moment of mystery before the star is revealed as – drum roll – Winston!
It is surely only a matter of time before the NZ First leader breaks out some of his other matinee-western classics.
“It’s one thing to steal a man’s horse, it’s another thing to ride it out of town,” is a standard if someone nicks his idea.
“He’s all hat and no horse,” might be given a trot if he spots a rival who’s all talk and no action.
The media has already come in for its traditional share of shellacking, though it is hard to see him ever topping his description of a reporter as a “smart-aleck, arrogant, quiche-eating, chardonnay-drinking, pinky-finger-pointing snobbery fart blossom”.
Just in case anyone takes his media-baiting too seriously, they shouldn’t. It is good vote-fodder, but Peters has long enjoyed journalists’ company, much as sports rivals enjoy a drink and a yarn after a hard match.
Some gallery reporters who have been around a couple of blocks recall how, at a speech during the 1998 by-election in Taranaki-King Country (the seat vacated by Jim Bolger), he delivered a stinging rebuke to the handful of reporters at the back of the room. The Winston-worshipping audience lapped it up.
But as he left, he paused at the media bench and said quietly “lunch over the road?”
At the Stratford restaurant he met old friend and former All Black half back Dave Loveridge. After a longish lunch, Peters dismissed his VIP driver, hopped in the media rental car, booked a room at our hotel in New Plymouth and settled in for an evening sharing political war stories and watching rugby.
It is tempting to treat Peters’ campaigning rhetoric with a similar-sized grain of salt as his media-baiting, but that would be unfair.
There are some things he believes in strongly and has been consistent about, including the dangers of too great an influence in the hands of iwi elites and the fear that expanding the influence of the Treaty may provoke a backlash from non-Māori, threatening national unity as well as any constitutional issues.
Alongside his ornery-ness, he also has a track record of delivery, especially for superannuitants, and an abiding dislike of the Douglas-Richardson-era free market reforms.
But at the end of the campaign, Peters’ aim is simple enough; to poll above 5% and get his hands on the levers of power. So his unsubtle dog-whistling towards the Parliament lawn-occupiers, xenophobes and general conspiracy theorists, needs to be seen in that light.
That 1998 by-election was one of his lowest points, with NZ First coming in sixth with just 561 votes – a single vote behind Christian Heritage.
But now, a quarter of a century later, Peters is bouncing back yet again. And he is in his sweet spot, polling at or above the 5% threshold that puts him within cooee of the balance of power.
It would take just a slight wind change to see him safely above the threshold and to becalm National-ACT off below the 61 seats needed for a two-party majority.
This time around there is the added complication of NZ First and Labour ruling each other out, so he is not as safely perched on the fulcrum of power as he has been in the past,
But if his backing is needed for National to form a government, then Christopher Luxon and his inner circle will be all too aware of Peters’ negotiating strategy, which is to squeeze out third parties in favour of a co-starring role.
In 2017, he struck a coalition with Jacinda Ardern but left her to wrangle the Greens and deliver their crucial vote on confidence and supply – from outside Cabinet.
There must be a real possibility of a similar scenario with National/ACT come October 14 – assuming Luxon does not bow to pressure ahead of the election and rule out a deal with Peters.
That possibility may help explain ACT leader David Seymour’s petulance (if it is not just about his sliding support and his magical disappearing candidates). It may also be behind Seymour’s musings about giving National assured support on votes of confidence, but not on supply votes such as for the Budget.
If Seymour is attempting to partially play Peters at his own game, he might heed a word to the wise before he saddles up.
It’s one thing to steal a man’s horse, it’s another thing to ride it out of town.
- Sunday Star Times
