Labour continues to lead in party vote support among Māori, with 34% of respondents saying they would vote for the party if an election were held this month.
The Greens were second on 18%, followed by NZ First at 9%.
Te Pāti Māori came in close behind on 8%, followed by National on 7%, the Opportunity Party on 4%, and ACT on 3%.
Meanwhile, 6% were unsure while 2% refused to say who they were backing.
More than half of the respondents living in towns said they would vote for Labour.
The exclusive poll was commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series and was conducted by Curia Market Research. The results are being released ahead of a live debate tonight moderated by Whakaata Māori host Moana Maniapoto and includes candidates from various political parties to discuss the big issues in this election.
The poll was conducted from 15 October to 22 October and surveyed 613 Māori voters on both the general and Māori rolls, aged 18 and older, based in Aotearoa. Questions were answered either via landline, mobile phone, or through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4% at the 95% confidence level.
Compared with the Whakaata Māori–Curia poll in September, which surveyed 1,000 Māori voters, the latest poll shows higher support for Labour, the Greens, NZ First, National and ACT, while Te Pāti Māori’s support is 10 percentage points lower.
Hipkins preferred Prime Minister
The new poll shows Labour leader Chris Hipkins as the preferred Prime Minister, having secured the largest chunk of support among Māori respondents at 26%.
Winston Peters and Chlöe Swarbrick were equal in popularity, with both registering 11%, while current Prime Minister Christopher Luxon received 7%, and Hauraki-Waikato MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke secured 6%.
A total of 12% were unsure or refused to say who they preferred.
Although David Seymour received just 2% support overall, he was the preferred choice among more than half of respondents who identified as “another gender”.
Hipkins’ support is 10 percentage points higher than in the September poll, while Swarbrick, Peters and Luxon have also recorded smaller increases.
Meanwhile, Maipi-Clarke’s support has more than halved, dropping by seven percentage points compared with September.
Government’s economic management rated ‘terrible’
With the cost of living at the forefront of voters’ minds, the coalition government, which promised to ease financial pressures during the 2023 election campaign, has faced scrutiny over its economic management.
Māori voters were asked to rate the government’s economic management during the 54th Parliament, with 30% describing its performance as “terrible”.
A further 26% rated the government’s economic management as “average”, while 21% described it as “poor”.
Just 14% rated its performance as “good”, with 7% saying it was “excellent” and 2% unsure.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents who are of another gender believed the coalition did an excellent job.
Central govt changing local govt representation
During its term, the coalition government introduced several changes to local government legislation, particularly affecting Māori and iwi representation.
One of those changes was to reinstate binding polls on Māori local council wards, with many put to a public vote during the 2025 local elections. The majority of those wards were voted down, meaning they would be removed by the 2028 local elections.
The government also introduced legislation restricting voting rights on council committees to elected members, affecting some councils where unelected iwi representatives previously had voting rights.
When asked how concerned they were about central government decisions reducing Māori and iwi participation in local government, 43% of Māori respondents said they were “very concerned”.
A further 35% were “somewhat concerned”, bringing the combined total to 78%.
Meanwhile, 10% were “not very concerned”, 8% were “not at all concerned”, and 4% were unsure.
Nearly half of all respondents were registered on the Māori electoral roll, including half of all wāhine respondents who said they were “very concerned” about the changes to local government.
Racial division perceived to have worsened
Half of those surveyed believed racial division had also worsened across the country since 2023, with 50% saying relations have deteriorated.
Meanwhile, 28% believed there had been no change, 16% believed the situation had improved, and 6% remained unsure.
The majority of wāhine and voters aged 60 years and over said racial division had worsened, while more than a third of tāne believed it had remained the same.
Concerns for the future generation
With so much happening across Aotearoa and around the world that could shape the lives of future generations, respondents were asked: “What are you most concerned about for your tamariki or mokopuna?”
Mental health and wellbeing topped the list at 23%, followed by “the rising gap between the haves and have-nots” at 20%, and access to culture and te reo Māori at 17%.
Artificial intelligence (AI) was the biggest concern for 15% of respondents, while 11% chose the climate crisis.
A further 10% selected “other”, while 4% were unsure.
Among respondents aged 18–39, a quarter identified access to culture and te reo Māori as their biggest concern for future generations, along with one in five tāne respondents.
The Māori Leaders debate will take place tonight and will be broadcast live at 7 pm on Whakaata Māori, MĀORI+, and the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page and YouTube channel.
