Today’s cases have dropped from 94 yesterday to 60. Māori are again the highest number of cases for the 17th consecutive day.
Māori were 46.7% of all new cases today, and are 44.8% of all cases during Delta Alert level 3, 44.1% of active cases in MIQ, 29.1% of all cases during the Delta outbreak, and 23.4% of all cases in hospital
Last week I published a model which predicts there will be between 700 and 1,100 new Māori cases by November 2. There have been 192 new Māori cases over the eight days since. Even without a dramatic increase, the number of new Māori cases remain on track to fall within the parameters of that prediction.
Although the 60 new cases today are lower than the record 94 cases we saw yesterday, Delta typically peaks, then drops into a trough of lower numbers. These troughs tend to be higher than previous lows before ascending to a new high. Delta cases will increase to over 100 cases within the next few days. If that eventuates, then Delta is capable of a rapid escalation in numbers.
With the steady rise in Māori cases set to continue it is more imperative than ever that as many Māori as possible get vaccinated as soon as possible particularly in Auckland.
If you remain unvaccinated, Delta will find you. Masks, sanitising and social distancing will only delay the inevitable. You are 20 times more likely to become infected than a fully vaccinated person and 40 times more likely to be hospitalised. We already know that Māori are 2.5 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than a Pākehā person. If Delta goes exponential, those figures will worsen.
Noho haumaru, stay safe.
Dr Rawiri Taonui.