Labour MPs say they remain determined ahead of the 2026 general election, but the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election defeat has forced fresh questions about the party’s relationship with Te Pāti Māori and whether it can win back Māori voters.
Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara defeated Labour’s Peeni Henare, with preliminary results showing Kaipara with 6,031 votes, ahead of Henare on just under 3,093.
There are about 2620 special votes left to be counted. Voter turnout for the election was 27.1 percent, noticeably lower than more recent by-elections.
Low turnout and Māori voter sentiment
Peeni Henare said there were a range of factors that contributed to the low turnout, but acknowledged there is work to do for the party.
“Of course, the Coronation, bad weather, All Black game, local government elections – those are already barriers that inhibit our people’s ability to vote. But I do think it’s also a reflection of this government, who are continually stripping away Māori rights.”
Henare said Labour must sharpen its policies and campaign methods.
“We’ve obviously got to work on our policies and make those announcements soon and make sure that they’re understood. We’ve got to continue to have a strong ground game, knocking on doors, having conversations. It sounds old-fashioned, but it’s the only way it works.”
Asked if he thinks Māori have lost confidence in Labour, he disagreed. Asked also if he would stand in the electorate in 2026, after losing now twice, he said it was too early to decide.
A work in progress
Willie Jackson acknowledged the result was difficult for Labour but said it should not be seen as catastrophic.
“We can say, ‘Oh this is terrible, this is shocking,’ and it was a shock to us. But there were mitigating factors. The two-for-one was very, very hard to get past.”
On Labour’s relationship with Te Pāti Māori, Jackson said there is some work to do.
“I think that’s a work in progress. Some clear signs from our people that they’re wanting some kind of relationship. What that relationship looks like, it’s best left to our leadership.”
He said Māori voting patterns have always been fluid.
“There was a time when they even thought Winston was gonna lead them to the promised land, right? Māori Party have had the Māori seats, we’ve had the Māori seats, New Zealand First had the Māori seats. There may well be an opportunity for us next year. We’ll see.”
Labour leadership cautious
Chris Hipkins pointed to the timing of the vote as a key challenge, and put it down to particular dynamics which led to their loss.
“It was right in the middle of the local government election campaign… we were finding people who didn’t even know there was a by-election on.”
He said Te Pāti Māori’s message resonated with voters.
“The Māori Party had a very convincing narrative, that Peeni Henare is already in Parliament, that was working for the Māori Party.”
Hipkins refuted that not having any major Labour Party tax policy for Henare to campaign on could have made a difference.
He also stressed that Labour will continue to hold discussions with Te Pāti Māori.
“We did say that we would meet again once the by-election was over in the next month or two. As we get closer to next year’s election all three of the parties want to change the government… there’ll be conversations about that closer to the election.”
At the same time, he warned Labour could not work with Te Pāti Māori if its rhetoric became too divisive, saying any partnership would depend on inclusivity.
Last week, Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris sparked criticism after posting on Instagram an image of Labour MPs and volunteers campaigning in the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election, with the caption:
“This blows my mind!! Indians, Asians, Black and Pākehā campaigning to take a Māori seat from Māori.”
Te Pāti Māori said it did not condone the language, asked Ferris to remove the post, and issued an apology “for any hurt it has caused.”
Labour leader Chris Hipkins wouldn’t describe the social media post as racist, despite two of his most senior Māori MPs, Henare and Jackson, saying they believed it was.
Hipkins said labels like that were not “helpful,” even though during the 2023 election campaign he pledged to call out racism wherever he saw it.
Te Pāti Māori vs the mainstream media: “We owe you nothing”
During the campaign, Te Pāti Māori were critical of some media coverage, which resulted in some journalists and their organisations being barred from the party’s election night event and not providing interviews to them.
The party claimed they were being harassed towards the end of the campaign, accusing reporters of “predatory behaviour.”
On Monday, co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer posted on social media alleging reporters were “pouncing out of bushes, chasing them into lifts, and being screamed at asking why they wouldn’t give interviews.”
When pressed at Parliament today, a terse exchange followed between reporters and the co-leaders.
Journalists asked whether blockading them and picking and choosing who they wanted to speak to could be characterised as censoring.
Ngarewa-Packer denied that and instead pointed to what she described as “bad behaviour.”
“You know why we didn’t talk to you when we asked you to behave. We talk about the behaviour and how we want people to be able to treat our people and our candidates. All that is about is some behaviour that we need to call out and when we asked it stop, there were feelings because, people like us don’t push back and say this isn’t the way to behave.”
The party rejected suggestions they were silencing media scrutiny, insisting their concerns were about conduct rather than censorship.
In a social media live on Tuesday afternoon, Rawiri Waititi doubled down, labelling mainstream media like “paparazzi.”
“We owe you nothing,” he repeated throughout the live. “If I never have to speak to you again, so be it.”
