Analysis: Christopher Luxon has declared he has the “full support” of his National caucus after surviving a leadership challenge blamed on Chris Penk, but questions remain over exactly how that confidence was measured.
Hours after emerging from Wednesday’s emergency caucus meeting, a statement from Luxon said Penk had launched a challenge to his leadership this week and stripped him of his ministerial portfolios.
“Chris Penk launched a leadership challenge this week, which resulted in today’s confidence vote. This makes his role untenable, and as such I have removed his portfolios,” Luxon said in a statement.
But neither Luxon’s statement immediately after caucus nor his subsequent announcement removing Penk specified whether a formal ballot vote was held.
In April, when Luxon last faced an internal leadership crisis, a formal vote took place in caucus, with MPs casting ballots on whether they had confidence in the Prime Minister. When Luxon emerged from that internal ruction, he said he had moved a “formal motion of confidence” in his leadership and that the motion had passed.
PM has “full support”
Te Ao Māori News was told that apparently no such formal ballot occurred today, and instead the question of confidence in Luxon’s leadership was put informally to the caucus during Wednesday’s emergency meeting.
When formal confidence votes take place, the final results are never made public; however, the existence of the vote is.
After questions were put to the Prime Minister’s office as to whether a formal vote of confidence took place, a spokesperson responded with “I don’t know”.
Without confirmation, this raises questions over how definitively Luxon can quantify the “full support” of his caucus, particularly now that he has confirmed a leadership challenge had been launched against him.
Despite about three hours of internal discussion, and days of speculation and Ministers and MPs refusing to express confidence in his leadership, the Prime Minister spent just over a minute addressing these concerns to the media and took no questions.
“There was a confidence vote in my leadership this morning at our caucus meeting, and I have the full support of our caucus and our caucus is united, and it is determined to win this election,” Luxon said.
How Luxon quantifies “full support” without confirming whether a balloted vote took part remains unclear.
National MPs began arriving at Parliament shortly before 9am on Wednesday for the hastily called 9:30am caucus meeting, summoned after days of increasingly public speculation over Luxon’s leadership and late-night discussions among MPs about whether the party could still win the election with him at the helm.
Te Ao Māori News understands there had been attempts to build support for a change of leadership, with senior ministers Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop among the names being discussed.
Exactly what happened once the caucus room doors closed remains unknown, for now, and whether Luxon can keep his caucus discipline and away from leaks and shirty phone calls to journalists.
About three hours later, Luxon emerged into Parliament’s Banquet Hall flanked by his front bench, in an attempt to put on a united front.
His deputy Nicola Willis, senior ministers including Erica Stanford, Chris Bishop, Mark Mitchell, Simeon Brown and Paul Goldsmith, and National Party president Sylvia Wood stood behind him as Luxon delivered a short and stern statement.
United in support
It was a carefully constructed, if not wholly convincing, picture of unity after days in which some of those standing behind him had been at the centre of speculation over who could replace him.
Stanford’s presence was particularly striking.
Her name had emerged as one of the strongest potential alternatives to Luxon, with MPs understood to have discussed possible leadership configurations involving Stanford, Bishop, and Mark Mitchell, in the hours leading up to the meeting.
Now she was one of many standing in support behind the man she was rumoured to replace - a man facing dwindling support from women and increasing accusations of being out of touch, sentiments that will likely prove harmful for National as we approach the election.
Luxon offered no details of what was discussed, and took the opportunity to give a stump speech.
“We’re going back to work, and we’re moving on,” he said, before walking from the room.
That leaves much of what happened during those three hours unanswered, although Luxon’s subsequent statement blames the issue on Penk, despite several MPs not ruling out a challenge.
The language used by MPs caught outside Parliament after the meeting was predictably consistent. Backbenchers repeated prepared key messaging about being united, relentlessly positive and all spouting the party’s election slogan in some iteration or another of ‘fixing the basics and building the future.’ Whether that was National, or the country they’ve been governing for three years, wasn’t clarified.
Doubt still lingers over PM
This is the second time in four months Luxon has had to formally test whether his MPs still want him as their leader.
This time, however, Luxon has named and punished one of his caucus.
Penk has been stripped of his ministerial portfolios, with Paul Goldsmith picking up Defence, Veterans, Space, GCSB and NZSIS, while Simon Watts will become Minister for Building and Construction.
Following his last brush with career-death in April, after another confidence vote, Luxon emerged blaming what he called a media “soap opera” surrounding his leadership.
This time there was no attack on the press and no dismissal of the reports as media speculation or the catalyst of dismay at his leadership after announcing without notifying his MP’s about an MMP referendum last week.
There was also no attempt to explain away how National had arrived back in exactly the same position four months later.
Whether National’s MPs are genuinely ready to do the same may depend on something Luxon cannot settle with another caucus vote: the polls.
The latest 1News Verian poll has Luxon falling another point to 17 percent as preferred prime minister, although he remains ahead of Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 15 percent.
National also continues to face a tight contest for government with less than three months until polling day.
For now, Luxon has survived another challenge to his leadership and moved quickly against the MP he says launched it.
But National has now held two confidence votes in its leader in four months; the first was supposed to put the speculation to rest.
But with a succession of gaffes and statements annoying his colleagues since then, a second failed attempt at ousting him leaves them with very few options but to limp to election day with him as leader.
