Voters in the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate are calling for tougher government restrictions to curb forestry slash and environmental devastation, while insisting that any regulatory overhaul must protect local jobs.
That dual economic and environmental imperative sits at the forefront of the latest Whakaata Māori-Curia poll, which also reveals Labour incumbent Cushla Tangaere-Manuel holding a commanding lead in the race for the electorate.
Conducted from 28 September to 8 October among 500 Māori adults enrolled in the electorate ahead of the 2026 elections, the poll captures deep-seated community anxieties stemming from the pine industry’s legacy following Cyclone Gabrielle and subsequent severe weather events.
When asked whether the government should prioritise tougher restrictions, reduce slash and erosion, or both, a clear majority of 59% backed protecting both jobs and the environment, while 22% prioritised reducing slash and erosion above all else.
The slash and jobs dilemma
Community and environmental advocate Hera Ngata-Gibson says the pollution left behind by slash has imposed costs that far outweigh any economic benefits the region sees from forestry.
“There’s so many pine trees out there, so much erosion, so much land movement happening just inland of our communities. It’s very scary,” Ngata-Gibson says, describing how infrastructure and livelihoods have been completely overwhelmed.
“Your whānau being displaced, our infrastructure, our roading infrastructure, communities being displaced... other people’s livelihoods just totally gone, covered in not just silt... covered in slash.”
She contrasts her lifetime memories of clean waterways and rich kai cupboards with the current reality, noting that younger generations do not remember a clean ocean.
While industry advocates frequently lean on employment numbers, Ngata-Gibson points out that the economic contribution is frequently overstated.
Data from a Mana Taiao Tairāwhiti report shows the industry provided just 4.8% of the 24,758 jobs in Te Tai Rāwhiti in 2025, despite contributing 6.9% ($202.2 million) to regional GDP, with cleanup and remediation heavily subsidised by taxpayers, ratepayers, and insurers.
“Until it impacts them directly, until they’ve got slash sitting on their whenua or knee-deep in silt, they’ve got no idea,” she says.
Candidate action plans on forestry
When asked where their support would be focused if elected, the candidates offered distinct paths forward.
Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, the current forestry spokesperson for Labour based in Rangitukia, emphasises that she understands the gravity of the issue firsthand.
“I did a panel the other night in Gisborne, and I opened with ‘nobody in forestry says - hey let’s go and bugger up our taiao,’” she notes, adding that cleaning up slash can also generate local employment when properly managed alongside targeted investment.
“There is some land that will only be suitable for forestry, and those whānau must be enabled to make an economic return on their whenua while of course protecting Papatūānuku and our taiao.”
Te Pāti Māori candidate Haley Maxwell stresses that the community’s concerns and guidance from expert reports are actively shaping their approach.
“Kei te kōrero te whenua, kei te kōrero ngā awa, kei te kōrero ngā moana, kua tae te wā. Me whai tātou tētahi atu huarahi hei oranga mō te taiao, hei oranga mō te whenua, hei oranga mō te iwi,” she says.
Heather Te Au-Skipworth acknowledges the lingering fear still gripping the community in the wake of Cyclone Gabrielle.
“You just see all the maunga covered in slash still... people think that because Cyclone Gabrielle, or all the other cyclones, have gone away that the worries and concerns were washed away as well and they’re not - they’re very real today.”
Electorate race and standings
On the political front, the poll reveals that 40% of voters prefer Tangaere-Manuel, while 38% feel she has done a good job over the last three years as incumbent. With only 7% rating her performance poorly, her net rating stands at a positive +31 percentage points.
Responding to her standing, Tangaere-Manuel says, “Kei te noho hūmarie ahau i aua nama me kī, heoi anō rā kua whakapau kaha o au ki roto i a Ikaroa Rāwhiti mō ngā tau e toru.”
The electorate has remained a staunch Labour stronghold since its establishment in 1999, held for years by Parekura Horomia until his passing in 2013, and subsequently by Meka Whaitiri before she defected to Te Pāti Māori in 2023 and lost the seat to Tangaere-Manuel.
Behind Labour, new Te Pāti Māori candidate Haley Maxwell sits at 19%, while Heather Te Au-Skipworth registers at 15%.
Despite trailing in the polls, Maxwell maintains an optimistic view of her campaign.
“E koa ana taku ngākau i runga i te mea ko au tētahi tau hou i roto i wēnei mahi tōrangapū,” she says.
“Kāore au i kuhu mai tēnei tūranga i runga i te whakaaro ‘ko au te toa’ - ehara. I hara mai au i tū taku ringa i runga i te mōhio ehara tēnei mahi i te mahi māmā.”
Te Au-Skipworth is similarly undeterred by the numbers.
“What we have to remember is that polls are a moment in time,” she notes, expressing confidence that sentiment on the ground points toward a broader rejection of traditional party lines.
“What I’m hearing is people are sick of a red or blue led government, and also they want somebody who is instrumental, progressive to lead our Green Party policies in our electorate.”
Voters will have the opportunity to hear further debate on October 13th during the Ikaroa-Rāwhiti candidate debates, broadcast live on the Te Ao Māori News YouTube, Facebook, and website channels.
