Analysis: The progress polls on the Māori electorates have been keenly awaited by political tragics like me. I’ve been keen to see if they might give a clue to answering three questions.
Firstly, how will Māori voters treat the very public implosion of Te Pāti Māori in this last term? Will they blame the party, which we should see reflected in the party vote or blame the candidate?
After incumbent Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris and Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi were expelled from Te Pāti Māori after their highly acrimonious and public falling out with party leadership, Tākuta very belatedly, in late August, announced he would stand again as an independent candidate.
On this news, another Māori political tragic sounded a warning to me that this was a hard row to hoe and that candidates should never underestimate the power of belonging to a movement: “you may leave the movement, but your people don’t.”
This poll strongly suggests Māori voters clearly were not impressed with either, and both the party and Tākuta Ferris are copping it.
Te Pāti Māori’s share of the party vote has halved from the 23% it polled last election. Labour is currently down 6%. Interestingly, the Greens’ 16% support on the party vote is exactly what they got on election night 2023.
At 15%, Tākuta is polling half of the 30% Labour’s Mananui Ramsden currently sits on in the electorate race. He is in fourth place (fifth if you include unsure voters).
To be fair, there is nothing between the next three candidates. One point separates Te Pati Māori’s Lisa Marie Murch (17%), the Green Party’s Lisa Te Morenga (16%) and Tākuta Ferris (15%). That certainly suggests not all his people went with him.
The history of split voting and coalition preferences
My second question is how strongly we will see Māori show their coalition preference by split voting.
In the first MMP election in 1996, Māori voted New Zealand First MPs to a clean sweep of the five Māori electorates, with Labour a strong second in the candidate race and party vote. National got but a handful of party votes in those seats by comparison.
In Te Tai Tonga, Tutekawa Wyllie edged long-standing Labour MP Whetu Tirikatene-Sullivan by 285 on special votes. However, Labour won the party vote 7,167 votes to 6,576.
Māori voter expectation was for a Labour-NZ First coalition. After two months of negotiations, Winston Peters and Jim Bolger formed the first MMP coalition Government.
It was a tumultuous first coalition, with Jenny Shipley deposing Jim Bolger, Winston Peters getting sacked as Treasurer and withdrawing from the coalition. National was propped up for the remainder of the term by NZ First’s Māori electorate MPs (and Alamein Kopu. That’s a whole other kōrero).
Toward the end of that first coalition term, Tutekawa Wyllie said to me, ‘We were dead men walking the day after Winston went with National. Our people voted for a Labour-New Zealand First coalition.’ This turned out to be so. Māori voter displeasure with that coalition was strong; they were all dumped, and Labour made a clean sweep of the now six Māori seats in 1999.
Returning to Labour
This brings me to my last question. Will this election see a repeat of the MMP pattern of voters in the Māori electorates trying the ‘it looked like a good idea at the time’ one election, only to return to the comfort blanket of the Labour Party?
In 2020 Labour won six of the seven Māori electorates, with Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi holding Waiariki.
In 2023 that was reversed, with Te Pāti Māori winning six and Labour holding just Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.
In Te Tai Tonga, the seat has not stayed away from Labour for more than one term at a time. Tutekawa Wyllie, New Zealand First in 1996, Rahui Katene, the Māori Party in 2008 and Tākuta Ferris, Te Pāti Māori in 2023.
In this poll, it is again going back to Labour after one term.
When Mahara Okeroa won the seat for Labour in 1999, he stood in the electorate only and did not seek a place on the Labour Party list. He wanted the mandate of the people of Te Tai Tonga to be an MP.
Mananui Ramsden has done the same this year for the same reason, and it runs as a foil to counter Te Pāti Māori’s strategy of ‘you’ll get two for one’ if you give their candidate the electorate vote and Labour the Party vote.
Again, on this polling, it looks like a good call for Labour and Mananui Ramsden.
Political commentator Chris Wikaira (Ngāti Maniapoto, Ngāpuhi) is a former RNZ Māori issues correspondent and BRG director specialising in Māori communications and political advice.
