Labour’s Mananui Ramsden has taken the lead in the Te Tai Tonga electorate, leaving incumbent Tākuta Ferris trailing behind.
Meanwhile, voters have ranked Te Tiriti o Waitangi as the top priority for the incoming government.
These are among the key findings of the latest Whakaata Māori-Curia poll.
Conducted from 14 September to 24 September, the poll gathered responses from 500 Māori adults enrolled in the Te Tai Tonga electorate ahead of the 2026 elections.
The poll shows Mananui Ramsden from the Labour Party is leading as the preferred electorate candidate, capturing 30 percent of participants, followed by Te Pāti Māori’s Lisa Marie Murch at 17 percent and the Green Party’s Lisa Te Morenga at 16 percent.
Ramsden welcomed the poll results, attributing his standing to broader regional connections rather than personal effort alone.
“I think there’s a recognition that Labour will make government and what our people need is people connected to the region that run from where we come from,” he says.
Tākuta Ferris trails behind candidates
Current electorate MP Tākuta Ferris sits in fourth place at 15 percent following his expulsion from Te Pāti Māori last year.
Ramsden offered a respectful response to his political rival.
“Ka nui āku whakaaro ki a Tākuta Ferris i tēnei wā, kei te mōhio tātou katoa ōna heke, ōna piki, i ngā tau, i ngā mārama kohi para.”
Standing as an independent, Ferris suggests that the recent political fallout may have affected his polling numbers.
“Taku rongo ki te iwi puta noa i Te Tai Tonga, ētahi kei te whakaaro tonu, he aha i pērā ai? Ngā āhuatanga i puta.
“Nō reira, tērā pea kua tōia tērā āhuatanga ki roto ki ngā tatauranga nei. Engari, ko tāku ki te iwi kia kaua rā e māharahara mō inanahi, ko te āpōpō kē te whai,” says Ferris.
Despite the low ranking, Ferris remains unfazed, pointing out that polls at this stage in previous election cycles looked similar.
He also retains a solid personal approval rating: 29 percent of voters rated his performance as good compared to 11 percent who rated it poorly, giving him a net positive score of +18.
“The main job has been holding the line of defence for our people, and I think we’ve done that exceptionally well. I mean the level of engagement across te iwi Māori right now has never been higher,” says Ferris.
Three candidates neck and neck
The candidates polling behind Ramsden are neck and neck with only a 1 percent difference between each placing.
Lisa Marie Murch from Te Pāti Māori feels confident about the ranking, despite Ferris’ expulsion and any aftereffects from the party being thrust into the spotlight.
“Whatever happened with Tākuta and his expulsion, that happened long before me,” she says.
“What it [the ranking] tells us is that it’s anyone’s race right now, and the seat is wide open,” she says.
She says the party remain focused on creating an overhang in Parliament by taking out the electoral seats.
“The voice for Te Tai Tonga is a really important voice. It’s going to lead our people forward into the next Parliament, and our main priority is getting rid of this Government,”
Green Party’s Lisa Te Morenga, ranked third, also feels positive about the result and the six weeks ahead.
“I think a lot of the people who might vote for the Greens or might vote for me are possibly the sort of people who are not going to answer the phone when the pollster rings.”
Te Morenga had a good portion of young voters aged 18-39, who also made up many of those who said they would give their Party vote to the Greens.
“I think young people, one, are natural Greens. They really care about the environment and are really worried about what that might look for them in the future,” she says.
Honouring Te Tiriti priority for improving outcomes for Māori
The poll found that 30 percent of voters ranked honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi as the top priority for the next government to improve outcomes for Māori.
That was followed by reducing poverty and homelessness at 24 percent and improving health and education outcomes at 20 percent.
Tina Ngata, a long-time advocate for Māori and Te Tiriti, believes the high figure shows that the document is seen to protect a range of issues in itself, which may be why it ranked higher than other priorities.
“It shows that people, I think particularly Māori now, are becoming more aware of how Te Tiriti actually does have material relevance,” she says.
“It’s not just an idea. It’s not just a philosophy. It’s not just a nice thing to think about; it has very real material consequences for our people.”
Ngata notes that it has also been a turbulent period for Te Tiriti, especially with proposed legislation that challenges its foundation.
“All of those things have impacted and worsened this experience for Māori in particular.
“It’s probably no coincidence that the government that has been responsible for the most amount of urgent tribunal claims, and arguably the most amount of Treaty breaches since the Waitangi Tribunal was established, is also the government under which we are seeing the worst cost of living crisis.”
Ramsden believes it is also a sign that Māori are becoming more politically aware.
“We’re not fools—despite the challenges, despite the way the narrative has been towards us over the last two and a half years, and over the last couple of generations as well,” he says.
“What we know in Waipounamu, Pōneke, and Te Tai Tokerau is when our Treaty foundation is strong, straight, true, and measured, the house stands well.”
Independent candidate Tākuta Ferris said that because of its foundational influence, it is a document that should be more widely embraced.
“Te Tiriti o Waitangi isn’t just a for-Māori thing. Te Tiriti o Waitangi isn’t a pro-Māori thing; it’s a pro-the-people-of-Aotearoa thing... when Te Tiriti o Waitangi is present, equity rises for everybody,” he says.
Ngata echoes the sentiment, saying it is key to moving forward as a nation.
“We need to understand clearly what Te Tiriti means, what is in the text, and what it can provide for all of us... the best defence in that space is to actually understand the facts.”
