Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori.
These are the three parties that need the Opportunity Party seats to get a majority, but do those three need each other?
While Labour and the Greens do, according to recent polling, it seems Te Pāti Māori seats wouldn’t affect the outcome.
With the recent RNZ-Reid Research Poll, a Labour, Greens, and Opportunity coalition would have a majority of seats with 62, if an election were held earlier this month.
If there are only 120 seats (not including any overhang), then a successful coalition just needs 61 seats.
Potentially, Te Pāti Māori could remain in opposition for the 55th Parliament, if Opportunity went with a left-wing government.
So the question remains: does the left block need Te Pāti Māori?
‘Razor-thin majority’
Political commentator Lara Greaves believes Te Pāti Māori seats were still valuable for the left block.
“When you have a government, and you only do have, say, 61, 62 seats, it gives a lot of power to the different MPs in the party because they can say, like, me and my mate are going off to resign now, we’ll take down the whole government.
“I think they would still consider reaching out to Te Pāti Māori because you don’t want that razor-thin majority,” she said.
Greaves did warn that with the new changes to the enrolment, the polling might not reflect what the final night will show.
“Everyone having to be enrolled to vote by midnight, the 25th of October, and we know that’s going to really affect younger voters and those sorts of voters are the people that give their party vote to the Greens and previously had given their party vote to Te Pāti Māori.”
Labour wants to work with fewer parties
For Labour leader Chris Hipkins, he said he wants to work with the least number of parties possible.
“We know this is going to be a close election and we aren’t taking anything for granted. This election is about the cost of living and only Labour has a plan to make life more affordable. We want to form a coalition with as few parties as possible, and will be campaigning hard for all the support we can get,” said Hipkins.
But for Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson, she pledged her party would continue working with Te Pāti Māori.
“We have and will continue to work with Te Pāti Māori on our shared goals, whether in a coalition or both as opposition parties. The shape of the Government after the election is up to the voters.
“We’ve shown we have a lot of common ground with Te Pāti Māori and we both share a commitment to getting rid of this destructive government,” she wrote in a statement.
Opportunity Party leader Qiulae Wong told Te Ao Māori News that the party had been “clear throughout this campaign”.
“Opportunity is prepared to find common ground and work constructively with all parties, including Te Pāti Māori.
“Ultimately, voters will determine the make-up of the next Parliament, and the parties involved will determine the shape of the next government. It won’t be up to Opportunity alone to decide who is included in or excluded from those discussions.
“Our focus will be on securing a strong, stable government that can deliver meaningful progress on the issues that matter to New Zealanders and advance the priorities we’ve campaigned on.”
Te Ao Māori News tried reaching out to Te Pāti Māori but was told: “We’ve said from the start we won’t make comments until Nov 8″.
What about overhang?
The 61-seat majority applies to a standard 120-seat Parliament. However, Te Pāti Māori’s campaign encouraging voters to split their votes could create an overhang, increasing the number of seats in Parliament and raising the threshold needed to form a majority government, potentially making the party’s support crucial.
Recent Whakaata Māori–Curia polls across the Māori electorates show Rawiri Waititi, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke and Oriini Kaipara leading in their respective electorates, while Labour candidates are ahead in Te Tai Tonga and Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, and the Greens in Te Tai Tokerau.
If those electorate polling results were reflected on election day, Te Pāti Māori would secure four electorate seats. This could create an overhang, although its size would depend on the final party-vote results.
But, according to Greaves, Te Pāti Māori’s strategy to overhang parliament would depend on three “big things”.
First being the Opportunity Party getting in, Te Pāti Māori winning their seats, and National’s party vs electorate vote.
Hypothetically, if National retained all 44 of its electorate seats at the upcoming election while receiving just 25.9 percent of the party vote, as recorded in RNZ’s poll, it would create a 13-seat overhang, according to calculations using the Electoral Commission’s MMP calculator.
This means Te Pāti Māori might not be the only one looking to create an overhang.
With the election less than a month away, the final parliamentary makeup will depend on the election results, including voter turnout, electorate contests and whether Te Pāti Māori’s vote-splitting strategy translates into additional electorate seats.
