This article was first published by Stuff.
Support for the National-led Government has fallen to its lowest level since the 2023 election, leaving the coalition effectively tied with the parliamentary Opposition.
The latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for March 2026 shows the governing coalition of National, ACT and NZ First on 47.5%, while the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori Opposition has risen to 48%. If an election were held now, both sides would be set to win 60 seats each in a likely 120-seat Parliament.
National’s support fell 4.5% points to 26.5%, the party’s lowest level of support in over four years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said National’s governing partners appeared to be gaining at the party’s expense, with NZ First rising to 11% and ACT up to 10%.
The Government Confidence Rating dropped 6.5 points to 78, the lowest rating since the coalition took office. A majority of electors (56%) believe New Zealand is “heading in the wrong direction”, compared to 34% who think it is on the right track.
“Luxon and his National colleagues are hoping to avoid being the first one-term New Zealand Government for over 50 years since 1975,” Levine said.
Consumer confidence also fell sharply in March, dropping 8.8 points to 91.3, its lowest level since late 2024.
Voting intention remains deeply divided by age and gender. Younger women aged 18-49 are the “central pillar” of support for the Opposition, with 64% favouring Labour, the Greens or Te Pāti Māori. In contrast, the Government draws its strongest support from men aged over 50, with 70.5% supporting the coalition.
Labour’s support increased 4% points to 34%, its highest level since August 2025. This gain appeared to come at the expense of the Greens, who dropped 3.5% points to 11%. Te Pāti Māori support rose slightly to 3%.
The poll was conducted by telephone with 872 electors between February 23 and March 22, 2026.
-Stuff
