A new national poll of Māori voters has revealed widespread dissatisfaction with the Crown, with 72% of Māori saying the Government has weakened the Treaty partnership and a matching 72% rating its overall job performance as poor.
Commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series, the survey was conducted from 29 August to 10 September by Curia Market Research, which also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Māori voters on both the general and Māori rolls, including 500 by phone and 500 through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1% with a 95% confidence level.
Labour losing ground to Greens
The most popular parties for Māori voters were Labour on 31%, Te Pāti Māori on 18%, the Greens on 17%, NZ First on 8%, National on 6% and Opportunity on 4%.
The long-defunct Alliance Party received 3% while the newly formed Te Tai Tokerau Party registered 2%. ACT and Free Palestine are also on 2% respectively. A further 6% were unsure.
The poll compared party support by Māori roll-registered voters against the 2023 general election result and identified a notable shift in support from Labour to the Greens. At the election, 44% chose Labour, but the poll showed only 28% would vote that way in an election now. While 9% voted for the Greens in 2023, 17% said they would do so now.
Te Pāti Māori best understands aspirations of Māori
Asked which party best understood the aspirations of Māori, 47% chose Te Pāti Māori, followed by Labour on 15% and the Greens on 9%. However, broken down by age, support for Te Pāti Māori intensifies significantly: 60% of the under-30 age group polled opted for Te Pāti Māori.
Te Pāti Māori leads among Māori-roll voters
Support changes significantly depending on which electoral roll voters are enrolled on, with Te Pāti Māori leading Labour among those on the Māori roll.
On the Māori roll, voters rated Te Pāti Māori as having the highest party vote at 29%, followed by Labour on 27% and the Greens on 16%. NZ First was on 6%, and the Te Tai Tokerau Party on 4%. National and the Opportunity Party registered 2% respectively, while ACT received zero party support on the Māori roll (5% were unsure).
On the General roll, Labour led support on 27%, with the Greens coming in second on 18%. NZ First and National had stronger support on the General roll with 10% each. Opportunity was on 6%, Alliance on 4%, while Te Pāti Māori and ACT received 2% respectively (7% were unsure).
Labour and Te Pāti Māori drew stronger support among wāhine than tāne, while Opportunity had much stronger support among tāne. NZ First performed strongly among older Māori, and National also performed relatively better in this group.
Hipkins and Maipi-Clarke emerge as preferred PMs
Across all 1000 voter respondents, Hipkins led the preferred Prime Minister ratings at 16%. He was followed by first-term MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke on 13%. Former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern registered on 9%, followed by NZ First leader Winston Peters on 8%.
Voters on the Māori Roll differed from the overall results, with Maipi-Clarke voted preferred PM on 19%. Te Pāti Māori is the most popular party among Māori aged under 30.
Government doing a ‘poor job’
Meanwhile, only 17% of Māori voters believe the Government is doing a good job, and 72% say it is doing a poor job of running the country.
There was a notable regional contrast: 33% of Māori in Tāmaki Makaurau said the Government was doing a good job, compared with only 4% in rural areas. There was no significant difference on this metric between respondents on the Māori roll and the General roll.
When asked if they believe the Government has strengthened or weakened the Treaty partnership, 12% of Māori think the Government has strengthened it, while 72% say it has weakened it. Those aged 46–60 years were more likely to report that the partnership had been weakened.
