Economic pressures have emerged as the top priority for Te Tai Hauāuru voters, according to a new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll showing Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer holding an 11-point lead.
Ngarewa-Packer leads Labour challenger Te Pūoho Kātene 38% to 27%, with National candidate Coral Raukawa at 10% and 18% undecided.
Ngarewa-Packer, the former chief executive of the Ngāti Ruanui iwi, is known for health and environmental advocacy, and led opposition to plans for offshore seabed mining off the Taranaki coast. She affiliates with the Ngāti Ruahine, Ngāruahine, and Ngā Rauru iwi
Key issues driving Te Tai Hauāuru
With two new faces bidding for the Te Tai Hauāuru seat alongside Ngarewa-Packer, both Kātene and National candidate Coral Raukawa are positioning themselves to address the core concerns of their electorate.
When asked to identify the primary issue determining their vote, residents overwhelmingly identified economic pressures as their chief concern, with the cost of living leading as the top priority for 36% of respondents.
Other key issues identified include hauora or healthcare at 9%, the environment at 9%, Te Tiriti o Waitangi at 8%, and housing at 8%.
Kātene is a Stanford University graduate and Fulbright scholar. The Tapuwae Roa chief executive, who affiliates to Ngāti Toa, Ngāti Whātua, and Ngāti Tama, also holds several governance roles.
Kātene emphasises that Labour has targeted answers for the cost-of-living crisis.
“Kei konei Te Pāti Reipa, kei konei mātou hei whakangāwari i ngā mea taumaha kei runga i ngā whānau i ia wiki, i ia wiki, i ia tau, i ia tau.
“Pērā i te utu o te haere ki te tākuta, ko te whakamutu i te tāke kei runga i te penehīni, waihoki ko te whakatipu i ngā tūranga mahi kei roto i ngā wāhi,” says Kātene.
Carol Raukawa is a Rangitīkei District councillor and descends from Ngā Wairiki Ngāti Apa, Ngāti Tamakopiri, Tamaupoko, Ngāti Tuwharetoa and Ngāti Kahungunu.
She has worked in Whanganui, Taranaki, Rangitīkei and Palmerston North, focusing on placing rangatahi into education, training or employment.
“For our whānau on the ground, it’s ‘what am I going to do with the last 20 dollars that I’ve got, and I’ve got these bills?’ If that was me, I’d be thinking, what services can I utilise? And that’s what I’d look to.”
The poll also surveyed electorate sentiment on constitutional reform. A majority of 51% stated that if a written constitution were developed, Māori and the Crown should lead the process together.
Generational differences were pronounced, with voters aged 18–39 significantly more likely to favour Māori constitutional leadership (36.7%) compared to those aged 60 and over (19.2%).
Party vote vs. electorate vote tensions
While Te Pāti Māori leads the preferred candidate vote in Te Tai Hauāuru, Labour holds the top spot for party preference in the electorate at 26%.
The Green Party at 19% is the next preferred party, followed by Te Pāti Māori at 16%, the NZ Outdoors and Freedom Party at 5%, and National at 5%, with undecided voters making up 13% of the electorate.
Demographic breakdowns highlight a notable gender divide in Green Party support, with 26% of women favouring the Greens compared to 12% of men.
