Te Tai Hauāuru voters have put Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer in the lead in a new poll.
Ngarewa-Packer led the Whakaata Māori-Curia poll at 38%, with Labour’s Te Pūoho Katene at 27% and National’s Coral Raukawa at 10%.
However, a large group—18% of voters—has yet to decide, and 6% chose “other” as their preferred candidate.
The poll was commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series. Curia Market Research conducted the survey from September 14 to September 24; it also polled for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.
The poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older in Te Tai Hauāuru, including 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% with a 95% confidence level.
Nominations for election candidates won’t close until October 8, with some parties still deciding whether to stand candidates.
If the undecided are removed from the poll count, support for Ngarewa-Packer would rise to 46%, Katene to 34%, and Raukawa to 13%, while “other” would rise to 30%.
Labour leads party vote although drop in support
Asked for their party preferences, Te Pāti Māori was in third place at 18%, while Labour led with 30%, followed by the Greens on 22% when excluding undecided voters.
Although Labour continues to lead, it and Te Pāti Māori have seen a significant drop in party support since the 2023 elections, while the Green Party have more than doubled its support in the electorate.
Te Tai Hauāuru is the only electorate which doesn’t have a Green Party candidate.
Key Issues
Asked about the most important local issue affecting their vote, Te Tai Hauāuru voters identified the cost of living as their top concern at 36%, followed by hauora (healthcare) and the environment at 9% each, and Te Tiriti o Waitangi and housing at 8% each.
Given the controversial mining plan for the Taranaki seabed, voters were asked whether economic development or environmental protection was more important: 43% said both were equally important, 22% were unsure, 20% favoured protecting the environment, and 15% chose economic development.
A majority of 59% said there were not enough employment opportunities where they lived.
Asked what the next government’s highest priority for improving outcomes for Māori should be, voters chose honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi at 29%, followed by reducing poverty and homelessness at 26%, and improving health and education outcomes at 21%.
Te Tai Hauāuru is a Māori electorate covering the western North Island, encompassing southern Waikato, Taranaki, Manawatū, and the north of the Wellington region.
Who are the Te Tai Hauāuru Candidates?
Ngarewa-Packer, the former chief executive of the Ngāti Ruanui iwi, is known for health and environmental advocacy, and led opposition to plans for offshore seabed mining off the Taranaki coast.
She affiliates with the Ngāti Ruahine, Ngāruahine, and Ngā Rauru iwi.
She first entered Parliament in 2020 on her party’s list, having failed to topple Labour MP Adrian Rurawhe despite a close vote. However, in 2023, Rurawhe chose to stand only on his party’s list, and Ngarewa-Packer trounced her new Labour opponent Soraya Peke-Mason by 9,162 votes.
Most voters rated the two-term MP’s performance as good, at 37%, or average, at 41%. Just 13% rated it poor, giving her a net positive rating of 24 percentage points.
This time she faces a new Labour candidate, Te Pūoho Kātene, a Stanford University graduate and Fulbright scholar, who is the Tapuwae Roa chief executive (Ngāti Toa, Ngāti Whātua, Ngāti Tama) and holds several governance roles.
Meanwhile, Rangitīkei District councillor Coral Raukawa has been selected as the National candidate in Te Tai Hauāuru. Raukawa (Ngā Wairiki Ngāti Apa, Ngāti Tamakopiri, Tamaupoko, Ngāti Tūwharetoa, and Ngāti Kahungunu) has worked across Whanganui, Taranaki, Rangitīkei, and Palmerston North, focusing on placing rangatahi into education, training, or employment.
The candidates will go head-to-head in a live debate on Whakaata Māori and MĀORI+ tonight at 7pm, co-moderated by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox.
