Mariameno Kapa-Kingi is running fourth in the race for Te Tai Tokerau’s electorate seat, according to the latest Whakaata Māori–Curia poll.
This is despite 67% of voters saying she has done a good or average job as an MP, and 73% saying it is “very important” that their electorate MP is willing to stand up to their own party.
“I work hard at home, and I work hard at the house. I’m trustworthy - e kore au e teka,” she says.
“He pāti hou, engari ehara he tangata hou tēnei - a wise head in a new party.”
The poll puts Kapa-Kingi on 12% as the preferred MP for Te Tai Tokerau, behind Green Party candidate Huhana Lyndon on 24% and Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime on 18%. Te Pāti Māori newcomer Aperahama Edwards is also on 12%.
Kapa-Kingi entered Parliament as Te Pāti Māori’s MP for Te Tai Tokerau. In November 2025, she was expelled from the party following internal disputes, including allegations of misusing party funds and bringing the party into disrepute.
In March 2026, the High Court ruled her expulsion was unlawful and ordered her reinstatement. She later established the Te Tai Tokerau Party in May 2026.
“It isn’t surprising given the scenario that rolled out in the middle of last year,” she adds.
“What I think it’s saying and what people are looking for is: can we trust you? Are you a trustworthy individual? Will you back us when you really need to?”
Te Tai Tokerau has seen a similar shift before with Hone Harawira, who held the seat for the Mana Party after leaving Parliament’s Te Pāti Māori in 2011, before Labour’s Kelvin Davis won the electorate in 2014.
40% of voters said Kapa-Kingi had done a good job as MP, while 27% said she had done an average job.
“Who I am and what I do in Te Tai Tokerau, I think that’s showing up.”
The Te Tai Tokerau Party is polling at three percent in the party vote, with other Whakaata Māori-Curia poll results showing support across electorates - including three percent in Hauraki-Waikato and one percent in Te Tai Hauauru.
Te pōti kaitono
While the candidate vote has taken shape, 22% of voters remain undecided.
“Tēnei hīkoi hei mema pāremata – horekau i te hīkoi māmā,” Lyndon says.
This is her second time contesting the seat, missing out in the previous election to Kapa-Kingi, but remaining in Parliament as a list MP.
“E noho whakaiti ana au i tēnei wā, nā te mea tino whakapau i taku kaha mō te rohe o Te Tai Tokerau,” she adds.
Support also varied by age. Voters aged 18–39 were more likely to support Prime and Kapa-Kingi, while those aged 40–59 showed stronger support for Edwards.
Te Pāti Māori’s Edwards, says it’s important that Te Tai Tokerau voters understand the MMP system.
“Ko aku tuāhine kua whai tūranga kē i roto i te rārangi ā pāti, nā reira, kaua e moumoutia te pōti.”
Prime has been in Parliament for nine years. She has previously held and contested the general electorate seat, but this is her first time contesting a Māori electorate.
“He hōnore nui mōku te tū mō Te Tai Tokerau,” she says.
“E mōhio ana ahau, e mātau ana ahau ki ngā mahi o te whare pāremata.”
Kua huri te tai i Te Tai Tokerau
Labour remains the preferred party in Te Tai Tokerau, polling at 27%, with the Green Party close behind on 25% - a 19% rise since
“Kua kākāriki a Te Tai Tokerau i tēnei wā. I roto i tēnei rohe - Rōpū Reipa katoa.”
14% of voters remain undecided, while Te Pāti Māori is on 11% of the party vote - a 14% drop since the 2023 Election. The party continues to campaign for a candidate vote only.
“Ko aku tuāhine, kua whai tūranga kē i roto i te rārangi ā-pāti, nā reira kaua e moumoutia te pōti,” Edwards says.
New Zealand First is on 6%, National on 4% and The Opportunities Party on 3%.
Ngā take nui ki ngā kaipōti
The cost of living is the biggest issue for Te Tai Tokerau voters, cited by 34%. Housing follows at 14%, healthcare at nine percent and jobs at seven percent.
Prime says this reflects what she is hearing on the ground in her electorate.
“Kahore ahau e tūmeke ki tērā.”
She says Labour’s policies will help cut these costs for Northland whānau.
“Ka utu i te haere ki te rata, horekau he utu mō te rongoā. Ka haukoti i te utu mō te haere i runga i ngā pahi, [i] ngā tereina.”
Lyndon says the Greens’ $2 billion Te Waonui a Tāne fund will support marae to provide essential services and ease cost-of-living pressures on whānau.
Kapa-Kingi says it’s important to ensure your voice is heard at the decision-making table.
“It’s a difficult situation when you’re in opposition, because you could have the best speech in town, but they’ve still got the votes. So how do you work to get Taitokerau to that table?”
The Te Tai Tokerau Candidate Debates will air live on Te Ao Māori News and Whakaata Māori at 7pm on Tuesday.
