Analysis: He Whakaputanga remains front of mind for many uri of Te Tai Tokerau, many of whom are preparing to head to Waitangi this week for the annual commemoration of the signing of the 1835 Declaration of Independence.
The declaration asserted the sovereignty and authority of hapū and their rangatira to determine their own laws and the future of their whenua and people.
The gathering brings whānau from across the motu together at Tou Rangatira. It is more than a commemoration; It’s a chance to remember the tūpuna who maintained the mana and rangatiratanga of their hapū and consider what that means for Aotearoa today.
For many from the North, He Whakaputanga and Te Tiriti o Waitangi are a common part of conversation. You will often hear northern tribes speak on the subject and take their role as kaitiaki of our nation’s kawenata tapu seriously.
So, it’s no surprise that the Whakaata Māori-Curia Poll shows 70% of respondents want He Whakaputanga recognised as a constitutional document alongside Te Tiriti.
Added to that, when asked whether Ngāpuhi should settle its Treaty claims with the Crown now, even if it meant agreeing to one centralised financial and commercial settlement, 50% of respondents said no, continue negotiating. Meanwhile, 28% wanted to settle now, and 22% were unsure.
Last week, Ngāpuhi met at Waitangi to discuss its economic future, and settlement of historical claims with the Crown was a key feature of the hui. This isn’t unusual; Te Tiriti o Waitangi is a standing agenda item on many, if not most, hui ā-iwi. At the hui, interested parties discussed the realities, challenges, and opportunities of a settlement with the Crown.
The poll also found that men were more likely to support settlement (34%) than women (22%).
Green voters were more likely to oppose settlement (65%).
Currently, the Crown-Māori relationship hangs by a thread after a term many Māori will describe as a relentless assault on Māori rights, tino rangatiratanga and the gains made by generations before us. That includes the first reading of the Treaty Principles Bill, the review of treaty clauses, the axing of Te Aka Whai Ora, and the removal of Treaty obligations from school boards.
Despite the tension, the tribes of the north are expected to continue welcoming members of parliament to the annual Treaty commemorations held at the Treaty Grounds in Waitangi.
With that in mind, voters were asked: Should the people of Te Tai Tokerau be expected to welcome all MPs at Waitangi commemorations, regardless of their views on Te Tiriti?
48% said all MPs should be welcomed, with 17% disagreeing, 22% saying it depends on the MP and 13% unsure. These numbers reinforce my earlier point that Te Tai Tokerau takes its role as kaitiaki of Te Tiriti seriously.
Labour and Greens are ‘rae ki te rae’ in the race for the party vote
Across the wider electorate, the race for the coveted party vote is tight. The 500 voters surveyed were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today; Labour leads the party vote at 27%, followed by the Greens at 25%, Te Pāti Māori at 11%, and NZ First at 6%. A further 14% were undecided.
Much further down, at 3%, is Te Tai Tokerau Party, which has explicitly positioned itself as an advocate for the region.
The poll will come as a shock for Labour, which has enjoyed prominence in the rohe. In the last election, the Labour Party took 44% of the party vote across the electorate; the poll shows a significant drop of 17 percentage points.
The Green Party will be happy with Huhana Lyndon’s work in the area; at the last election, the party took only 10% of the party vote, compared with 25% in the current poll, an increase of 15 percentage points. Significant, to say the least.
Te Pāti Māori took 27% of the party vote in 2023; the current poll puts the party at 11%, a drop of 16 percentage points that could indicate their candidate-only strategy is working.
The almost identical rise for the Greens suggests Te Pāti Māori voters may be finding a home with the Green Party for their party vote.
Aperahama Edwards and Te Pāti Māori have been explicit that party votes should go to the Labour Party or the Green Party, a statement Tai Tokerau Party Leader, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, has taken exception to, saying it disregards her party, which remains committed to Te Tai Tokerau, Te Tiriti, and mokopuna.
The Green Party could secure their first-ever Māori seat
Punters have been calling Te Tai Tokerau the electorate to watch this election, and I can’t disagree, not only because the electorate and our incumbent MP have been under the microscope for the past year, but also because of the formidable candidates who have put their hands up to represent the region that boasts of its historical relevance and its contemporary importance in the wider conversation of Tiriti rights.
The smarts and political rigour each candidate brings to the election is something to celebrate, and no doubt be proud of; it might also be why 22% of those surveyed are unsure who to back.
The Greens’ Huhana Lyndon is the only candidate polling higher than the number of unsure voters at 24%; Labour candidate and former cabinet minister, Willow-Jean Prime, follows behind on 18%; closely behind her is Te Pāti Māori candidate and iwi leader, Aperahama Edwards, on 17%, and 12% of those surveyed say they would vote for Te Tai Tokerau Party leader and incumbent, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi.
If these numbers indicate anything, it is that the Greens could be celebrating their first Māori seat in Te Tai Tokerau, something I’m sure Hokianga uri and party co-leader Marama Davidson would be chuffed to see.
Tai Tokerau are positive about Kapa-Kingi’s performance
As mentioned previously, Te Tai Tokerau and Kapa-Kingi have been under the microscope. She has spent much of the past term dealing with internal issues with former Māori Party colleagues and building the new party, which she says is focused on outcomes for Te Tai Tokerau. Respondents were asked: How good a job do you think she has done as the local MP over the last three years?
Regardless of how she’s polling, responses were still positive: 40% said she has done a good job, 27% said she’s done an average job, and 14% said she has done a poor job. 18% said they were unsure.
The issues that matter
For voters in Te Tai Tokerau, priorities are clear: the cost of living is the most important local issue that could affect their vote at 34%, followed by housing at 14%, hauora at 9%, and jobs at 7%. Te Tai Tokerau currently faces a housing shortage and has the highest unemployment rate in the country at 8.8%
Another issue plaguing communities is methamphetamine. 61% say that not enough is being done to address the harms caused by methamphetamine locally.
Te Kāhui Mārohirohi, a Ngāpuhi meth taskforce confronting the crisis within the rohe, is bringing iwi, agencies and community groups together in a coordinated effort to reduce meth harm within their communities.
What the poll tells us
The results show an electorate balancing its constitutional aspirations with the very real, immediate pressures facing whānau today.
It is also clear that for voters in the northernmost Māori electorate, He Whakaputanga remains relevant to the future of constitutional arrangements in Aotearoa; there also appears to be appetite for Ngāpuhi settlement negotiations to continue.
But constitutional aspirations are only part of the picture. Cost of living, housing, healthcare, jobs and methamphetamine harm are also weighing on voters. Whoever wins this race will need to show they have a plan to address these issues and deliver meaningful outcomes for whānau.
The political landscape is also shifting quickly, and Te Tai Tokerau voters aren’t strangers to shifting sands. Labour’s decline and the Greens’ rise suggest a changing party-vote race, while 22% of voters remain unsure about their electorate vote. That leaves plenty of room for candidates to make their case before polling day.
Voting opens soon
The race is tight, and the electorate is diverse. No candidate can afford to rest on their laurels. Whether at Te Reo Mihi in Te Hāpua, at Waikarā in Te Roroa, at Te Touwai in Whangaroa or at Te Piringatahi o te Maungaarongo in Tāmaki, candidates have a small window to make their case and show voters why they are the right person for the job.
Te Tai Tokerau is no playground. It is an electorate rich with potential, ambition and drive. The winner will need the political skill to harness that potential and deliver for their people.
At the last election, more than 13,000 eligible voters didn’t vote.
If they turn out this time, they could play a decisive role in determining who gets in and who gets left out.
