He pūrongo tēnei nā Elijah Pue, Horizons Regional Councillor
Analysis: I first want to acknowledge the tragic passing of the Rt Hon Adrian Rurawhe, Uncle Adrian, who served as the member of parliament for Te Tai Hauāuru from 2014 to 2023.
A statesman of Aotearoa New Zealand, and of his iwi and hāhi, his was a life of service. His legacy is one that will be remembered for many years to come. E moe Uncle, ki ngā nui o te pō. Tihei Mauri Ora!
The race for Te Tai Hauāuru is certainly one to watch.
The latest poll confirms what many people already suspected. This is a two-horse race between incumbent Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Labour challenger Te Pūoho Kātene.
To be completely honest, I expected Labour to be ahead by now.
Given the number of internal issues that Te Pāti Māori have had to navigate over the past year, I thought Labour would have capitalised on it by now. Instead, Debbie remains ahead by 11%. At first glance, that looks comfortable. In reality, it probably isn’t.
At the 2023 election, Debbie won Te Tai Hauāuru with almost 64% of the candidate vote and a majority of more than 9,000 votes. Today, she finds herself only 11 percentage points ahead of a Labour candidate completely new to electoral politics. That doesn’t make Te Pūoho the favourite, but it suggests this race is far more competitive than it was three years ago.
Incumbency matters, and Debbie still enjoys significant personal support across the electorate. Her leadership against seabed mining has made her one of the most recognisable Māori politicians in the country, and in my view, it remains the defining achievement of her time as an MP. But Labour has unseated sitting Māori MPs before, sweeping all seven Māori seats in 2017. If this poll is accurate, Labour will believe Te Tai Hauāuru is genuinely an electorate that they could win.
It is also worth acknowledging that Debbie has recently stepped away from campaigning due to the illness of her mother. Family will always come first, and I think that says a lot about her own values. Ka nui te aroha.
The most interesting result, however, isn’t the candidate vote. It’s the party vote.
Labour and the Greens are currently polling ahead of Te Pāti Māori. Labour leading the party vote shouldn’t surprise anyone. Historically, it has almost always dominated the party vote here, even when it didn’t hold the seat itself. What is different this time is the strength of the Greens, and the fact that Te Pāti Māori now trails both parties.
For me, that’s the biggest story here. Voters splitting their candidate vote from their party vote isn’t new. We’ve seen that across Māori electorates for years, and Te Tai Hauāuru is no exception. What is new here is that the party vote has traditionally been a straight contest between Labour and Te Pāti Māori. This time, Te Pāti Māori is sitting third, behind both Labour and the Greens. That hasn’t happened before in this electorate.
We already know why. It’s Te Pāti Māori’s own strategy to win the candidate vote and let the party vote go wherever it will. The real question is what that does to the makeup of Parliament, particularly on the centre-left. If the same pattern is playing out across other Māori electorates, it could mean a smaller Te Pāti Māori caucus and a bigger share going to Labour and the Greens, changing the numbers any centre-left government would need to work with.
The other major finding in the poll was cost of living, and that shouldn’t surprise anyone either. Thinking about my own patch in Ruapehu, we’ve just watched 231 people lose their jobs through the closure of the WPI mills. Families are worried about employment, electricity costs, housing affordability and whether there’s any future in staying local.
People can talk all day about aspirations and vision. The reality is voters want to know who will help them pay the power bill, keep food on the table and create jobs. That is where both Te Pāti Māori and Labour have work to do.
Te Pāti Māori has released ambitious policies, but voters are entitled to ask how they will be funded and whether they are realistic. Labour shouldn’t escape the same scrutiny either. It has released its own policy announcements and is awaiting PREFU before releasing its fiscal plan. In the end, voters should be asking exactly the same question of every party. How is the taxpayer going to afford it?
Te Pūoho’s result is also noteworthy. He is new to the game and doesn’t have Debbie’s profile, yet he is already polling strongly. His connections to Ngāti Toa Rangatira, his leadership of Tapuwae Roa and his governance experience give him credibility before voters even consider Labour Party policy.
One thing voters should be careful about is assuming Te Pūoho will simply enter Parliament through the Labour list. He currently sits at number 34, and in 2023 Labour only initially reached candidates ranked in the high twenties. If voters want him representing Te Tai Hauāuru, the list alone offers no guarantee. The same thinking applies across all Māori electorates.
Three years ago, Debbie won this electorate by a landslide. Today she leads by 11%. That’s still a lead, but it’s a reminder that no candidate, no party and no political movement should assume they have Te Tai Hauāuru locked up.
If I were Labour, I’d be encouraged.
If I were Te Pāti Māori, I’d be concerned.
And if I were a voter in Te Tai Hauāuru, I’d be reminding every candidate of one thing. No one owns this seat.
