For much of this political term, Māori opposition to the coalition Government has been unmistakable.
Thousands have marched against changes to Te Tiriti, iwi have challenged the Crown through the courts and Waitangi Tribunal, and Māori communities have mobilised in ways not seen for years.
But with less than two weeks until the election and early voting underway, the political question is no longer simply whether Māori voters are dissatisfied with the Government. It is which parties have convinced them they can do something about it.
The latest Whakaata Māori–Curia poll offers a revealing, and in some respects surprising, answer.
Labour remains the strongest party among Māori voters, attracting 34% support, followed by the Greens on 18%, New Zealand First on 9% and Te Pāti Māori on 8%.
National sits on 7%, the Opportunity Party on 4% and ACT on 3%.
The poll surveyed 613 Māori voters across both the Māori and general electoral rolls between October 15 and 22. It has a maximum margin of error of four percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
It follows a September survey of 1000 Māori voters, which had Labour on 31%, Te Pāti Māori on 18% and the Greens on 17%.
Labour’s three-point increase and the Greens’ one-point movement are within the polling margins. Te Pāti Māori’s 10-point fall is more striking, although its significance needs to be understood alongside the party’s candidate-vote-only election strategy.
Labour’s lead comes with a warning
Labour’s lead is significant, but the longer-term comparison is less flattering.
In the 2023 election, Labour won approximately 44% of the party vote in the Māori electorates. In September’s Whakaata Māori poll, its support among Māori-roll voters was 27%, compared with 29% for Te Pāti Māori and 16% for the Greens.
The comparison is not exact. The latest national survey includes Māori voters on both rolls, while the 2023 Māori-electorate results cover only those enrolled in the seven Māori seats.
Nevertheless, Labour no longer enjoys the same dominance of the Māori party vote it once did, particularly compared with the extraordinary 2020 election, when Jacinda Ardern secured an outright parliamentary majority.
Chris Hipkins has spent much of this campaign attempting to reassure voters that Labour offers a credible alternative government.
There are signs that the approach is resonating.
Hipkins is now the preferred prime minister among 26% of Māori respondents, up from 16% in September, a substantial 10-point increase. The movement is particularly notable given the relatively modest change in Labour’s party-vote support, and the Greens picking up the rest of them.
There remains a difference between being the preferred alternative to Christopher Luxon and inspiring voters with a programme of change.
And Labour’s support from Māori has yet to be tested against one of the campaign’s most contentious developments: Hipkins’ increasingly hardline rhetoric on gangs and his handling of Tāmaki Makaurau candidate Kerrin Leoni’s resignation.
Footage obtained by Whakaata Māori showed Leoni attending an event advertised as a Mongrel Mob fundraiser. She maintained it was a whānau function and denied visiting a gang pad during the campaign.
Hipkins said campaigning alongside gangs was unacceptable, and the footage fell short of his expectations. Leoni resigned from Labour on October 23 but has since announced she will continue as an independent.
It exposes tensions between Labour’s efforts to appeal to the wider electorate and its relationship with Māori communities, where gang affiliations can also intersect with whānau connections.
Crucially, the latest poll was conducted between October 15 and 22, with the footage emerging on its final day. It cannot tell us whether that or Hipkins’ response has affected Labour’s Māori support.
The Greens’ opportunity
Perhaps the most consequential longer-term development is the emergence of the Greens as a serious competitor for Māori votes.
Their 18% support is only one point higher than September’s result, well within the margin of error. It would therefore be misleading to describe the latest survey alone as evidence of a sudden surge.
But compared with the party’s 2023 performance in the Māori electorates, the shift is substantial and shows consistency with their increasing support among Māori.
The Greens won about 9% of the Māori-electorate party vote in 2023. In September, they were polling at 16% among Māori-roll voters, close to double their previous election result.
The party has also campaigned more visibly in the Māori electorates this year, with candidates including Hūhana Lyndon in Te Tai Tokerau seeking to convert that support into electorate victories. Lyndon topped the seat’s electorate poll earlier this month.
The Greens offer an established presence, an explicit and consistent commitment to Te Tiriti and a policy platform linking economic inequality, housing, climate change and Māori rights.
Their growing appeal may also reflect the willingness of Māori voters to look beyond the parties that have traditionally dominated Māori political representation.
And unlike Te Pāti Māori, the Greens are actively seeking both the electorate and party votes.
Te Pāti Māori’s strategy appears to be gaining traction
On the face of it, Te Pāti Māori’s fall from 18% in September to 8% in the latest national Māori poll looks like a significant loss of support.
But that interpretation overlooks one of the most talked-about strategies of this election campaign.
Te Pāti Māori has explicitly campaigned for the candidate vote, encouraging supporters to give their party vote elsewhere on the left.
And as the campaign enters its final weeks, there are signs voters are responding.
The September poll had Te Pāti Māori on 18% across both rolls, including 29% among Māori-roll voters, narrowly ahead of Labour’s 27%.
The latest national figure of 8% covers both rolls, meaning it cannot be directly compared with the 2023 Māori-electorate party vote. But the decline from September is clear.
In Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi maintains a substantial electorate lead despite Labour and the Greens competing closely with Te Pāti Māori for the party vote. Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer also retain strong electorate support in Hauraki-Waikato and Te Tai Hauāuru respectively.
Voters appear increasingly willing to separate their support for a Te Pāti Māori electorate MP from their preference for who should receive the party vote.
For Te Pāti Māori, that is precisely the outcome it has been campaigning for.
By concentrating on electorate victories while encouraging supporters to direct their party votes towards potential coalition partners, Te Pāti Māori is attempting to maximise representation across the wider left bloc.
The prospect of securing four electorate seats, with Tāmaki Makaurau among the closely contested electorates, makes that strategy particularly consequential.
The polling is consistent with that strategy gaining traction, although it cannot establish whether individual voters have changed their voting intentions because of it.
The electorate contests and the Leoni factor
The Whakaata Māori–Curia electorate polls reinforce the growing distinction between candidate and party support.
In Te Tai Tokerau, the Greens have risen from 10% of the party vote in 2023 to 29% among decided voters, while Labour has fallen from 44% to 32% and Te Pāti Māori from 27% to 13%. Lyndon also leads the electorate contest on 24%, with 22% undecided.
In Waiariki, the Greens have climbed from 6% in 2023 to 25%, while Labour and Te Pāti Māori sit on 28% and 27% respectively. Similar Green gains have emerged in Hauraki-Waikato and Te Tai Hauāuru.
Each electorate survey questioned 500 voters, with a maximum margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
But Tāmaki Makaurau has become particularly consequential following Leoni’s resignation.
A Whakaata Māori–Curia poll put Te Pāti Māori’s Oriini Kaipara on 33% of the electorate vote, narrowly ahead of Leoni on 31%, with Green candidate Florence Te Ōhaere on 21%.
That polling preceded Leoni’s departure from Labour. Her decision to continue independently adds another layer of uncertainty to an already tight contest.
With nominations closed, Leoni’s name remains on the ballot. She no longer represents Labour and, if elected, would sit in Parliament as an independent rather than join the Labour caucus.
The implications extend beyond Tāmaki Makaurau.
Te Pāti Māori’s pathway to retaining its electorate representation has narrowed, with polling showing difficult contests in Te Tai Tokerau, Te Tai Tonga and Ikaroa-Rāwhiti. Four electorate seats remain central to its parliamentary calculations, with Tāmaki Makaurau an especially consequential contest.
If Te Pāti Māori wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would otherwise entitle it to, that would create an overhang, increasing Parliament’s size.
In a closely divided Parliament, those seats could prove crucial to government formation, potentially working in the wider left bloc’s favour.
The result could affect not only who represents Tāmaki Makaurau, but the parliamentary arithmetic after November 7.
What Māori voters are actually worried about
The latest polling also suggests the campaign has been shaped by more than the constitutional battles that have dominated the past three years.
Asked to assess the Government’s economic management, 51% of Māori respondents rated it poor or terrible, compared with 21% who considered it good or excellent.
Meanwhile, 78% expressed concern about central government decisions reducing Māori and iwi participation in local government.
Half believed racial division had worsened since 2023, while just 16% thought it had improved.
But when asked about their greatest concerns for tamariki and mokopuna, respondents identified mental health and wellbeing first, at 23%, followed by the widening gap between rich and poor on 20%, and access to culture and te reo Māori on 17%.
These are not necessarily competing concerns.
For whānau, economic security, cultural identity and wellbeing are often inseparable.
The electorate polls reinforce the importance of material conditions, with the cost of living consistently emerging as a leading issue.
While Te Tiriti has been central to Māori political mobilisation, voters are also judging parties on their ability to improve everyday life.
The test ahead
The findings arrive ahead of Whakaata Māori’s leaders’ debate, moderated by Moana Maniapoto, where the parties will face questions about their records, policies and ambitions for Māori.
The September poll suggested Māori voters had reached a verdict on the Government but had yet to decide where their votes should go.
Six weeks later, that decision appears to be taking shape.
Labour remains the preferred party, the Greens have become a significant force for Māori voters, and Te Pāti Māori may be succeeding in persuading voters to back its candidates while directing their party votes elsewhere.
What once looked like a contest between parties for the same Māori votes is increasingly becoming a contest over how those votes are distributed.
And under MMP, that distinction could determine not only who represents Māori electorates, but the balance of power in the next Parliament.
