ANALYSIS: Through this political term, Māori opposition to the coalition Government has been difficult to miss.
Tens of thousands marched against the Treaty Principles Bill; iwi have repeatedly challenged Crown policy through the Waitangi Tribunal and the courts, while the Government has pursued ongoing changes affecting Te Tiriti and Māori-Crown relations.
The first poll dedicated to Māori voters this term, being released today, confirms deep dissatisfaction.
Commissioned by Whakaata Māori and conducted by Curia, which also polls for the Taxpayers’ Union and the National Party, it suggests 72% of Māori rate the coalition’s performance as poor and just 17% as good. More politically important is where that dissatisfaction is going, which isn’t neatly towards any one opposition party.
Across all Māori voters, Labour leads on 31%, followed by Te Pāti Māori (TPM) on 18% and the Greens on 17%. NZ First has 8%, National 6% and ACT 2%.
That may look comfortable for Labour. Dig deeper, and there are warning signs.
Among Māori in general seats, Labour is strongest at 35%, the Greens on 18% and TPM on just 3%. National and NZ First are on 10% each.
But in the Māori electorates, TPM leads Labour 29% to 27%, with the Greens on 16%.
Compared with the 2023 result, Labour’s Māori-roll support has fallen from 44% to 28%, while TPM has barely moved, from 30% to 31%. The Greens are the big winners, almost doubling their support from 9% to 17%.
Labour’s problem isn’t that Māori are abandoning it for TPM but for the Greens.
Consistent with its “small-target” strategy, Labour has often held back from opposing the coalition’s Māori agenda with full throat. Also consistent with that strategy, it has only recently begun releasing any serious policy, including Māori-focused policy.
Its Māori campaign launch promised $21 million a year for Māori-led trades training to support 3000 Māori into skilled work, which could raise productivity. While the fiscal situation creates restraints, Labour still needs to give Māori something to vote for, rather than hoping to ride anti-Government resentment.
The age divide
The age breakdown makes that challenge even more complicated. There’s an inverse relationship between TPM and Labour and age. Among 18-30 year-olds, TPM is ahead 30% to 23%, with the Greens on 18%. Among voters aged 46 and above, Labour is well ahead.
TPM’s movement resonates deeply with a new generation of Māori voters but may not have carried that appeal across generations.
Other Māori haven’t yet decided. One in 10 of those aged 31 to 45 are unsure where their party vote will go, the highest of any age group.
Uncertainty is greater about who Māori want as prime minister. The leader is “don’t know” or “refused to say” on 20%, followed by Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 16% and Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, the TPM electorate MP whose haka went global, on 13%. TPM co-leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer trail on 5% and 2% respectively.
Among those aged 18 to 30, Maipi-Clarke is particularly favoured by those under 30, with 23% backing her for PM, and wāhine, at 20%.
There’s clearly a Hana-Rawhiti effect after her haka went viral and became a defining moment of the 54th Parliament, but critics would argue she does not yet have a significant legislative or policy record.
Hana-Rawhiti also avoided association with TPM’s internal fighting. Her silence almost worked too well, fuelling speculation she might leave the party, until she publicly confirmed her loyalty.
That left her own political brand undamaged. More surprising is that TPM itself also emerged relatively unscathed.
Te Pāti Māori maintain
Despite accusations of dictatorial leadership, expulsions and court action, and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi leaving to establish Te Tai Tokerau Party, Te Pāti Māori’s core support has seemingly held.
Conventional political analysis is that division equals dysfunction, dysfunction equals electoral punishment. But taupatupatu isn’t foreign to Māori. Strong arguments happen, sometimes very publicly, but then haere tonu. Or perhaps TPM’s brand is strong enough to absorb the personalities and drama around it.
For its part, Kapa-Kingi’s new Te Tai Tokerau Party registers 2% nationally, rising to 4% among Māori-roll voters. That’s hardly enough to declare a breakthrough but anything above zero is notable for a new party without the resources, infrastructure or nationwide machine of its established rivals. The real test will be Te Tai Tokerau itself, where Kapa-Kingi is the sitting MP and whanaungatanga and sheer mahi can count more than national brands.
TPM can certainly mobilise, command attention and win Māori electorates. Voters will decide whether it has also demonstrated the organisation and political discipline required to turn that into lasting political power in Wellington.
Whakaata Māori and Curia’s electorate-specific polls for forthcoming electorate debates will provide more information.
The polls will also suggest whether TPM’s candidate-vote strategy is working. So far, the numbers suggest it isn’t. But there is obvious MMP logic in TPM trying to keep its party vote low while winning more electorate seats to create an overhang which could benefit the wider left.
It’s a strategy some on the political right are also advocating to try to give National more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would otherwise entitle it to.
The Greens would happily accept those votes. Its rise from 9% to 17% among Māori-roll voters is probably the most significant finding in today’s poll. Geography adds another layer: among rural Māori, the Greens are on 29%, almost level with Labour on 32%, while TPM is 11%. Those subgroup numbers should be treated cautiously because of larger margins of error, but they provide some insight nonetheless.
If Labour is losing ground among Māori-roll voters to the Greens, TPM encouraging its supporters to take their party vote elsewhere might help decide the relative power balance between the two mainstream parties around any left-wing Cabinet table.
But one number almost certainly matters more than any political manoeuvring.
Asked for the biggest issue facing Māori, 42% identified the cost of living. Māori-Crown relations was a distant second at 15%, followed by health and housing on 7% each.
Among the rangatahi, giving TPM its strongest support and Maipi-Clarke her stand-out preferred-prime-minister result, cost of living rises to 49%.
To win the battle among Labour, TPM and the Greens, candidates will have to convince Māori they can fight for Te Tiriti and Māori aspirations while answering the much more immediate question dominating this poll: how whānau can buy the groceries and pay their bills.
The poll was commissioned by Whakaata Māori and conducted by Curia Market Research between August 29 and September 10. It surveyed 1000 Māori adults, with 500 interviewed by phone and 500 through an online panel. Results were weighted by gender, age, area and electoral roll. The maximum sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, with larger margins for subgroup results.
