National | Community Transmission

Māori cases will pass Pacific tomorrow - Dr Rawiri Taonui

Today the Ministry of Health announced a new record of 162 Delta cases.

Record Māori cases

  • Today's numbers included a new record for Māori of 79 cases.
  • This is the 29th consecutive day Māori have had the highest cases.
  • The highest three days of Māori cases since Covid-19 first entered New Zealand have come in the last three days.
  • Many more record days are certain.

Impact on Māori communities

  • There are a record 1,916 active cases today.
  • Māori are 43.7% of all active cases (837).
  • There are 564 active cases isolating in 372 households in Auckland.
  • The Ministry of Health has not released the ethnic data for this group. It can be assumed that the majority will be Māori.
  • Active cases have overrun the capacity of managed isolation and quarantine.

Māori the most impacted demographic

  • On October 12, my four-level percentage increase model (low 30%, medium 40-50%, high 60%) predicted 1,100 to 1,500 Māori cases by November 2.
  • With one day to go, there are 1,226 Māori cases.
  • On October 25, a second projection was that Māori cases would pass Pacific Peoples on November 3 or 4.
  • Māori will pass Pacific (1,231) as the most impacted demographic tomorrow.
  • Māori and Pacific are 70% of all cases (2,457) in the outbreak.
  • Later this week, I will compile a new projection for November to December.

Noho haumaru, stay safe.

Dr Rawiri Taonui.