A new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll shows Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke holding a commanding lead over Labour candidate Kingi Kiriona in Hauraki-Waikato.
Maipi-Clarke received 45% in the candidate vote, compared with 26% for Kiriona, giving her a 19-point lead. A further 17% were undecided, while 13% chose “other”, indicating they preferred someone else, though no other candidates have put their names forward at this time.
The results come ahead of a head-to-head debate between Maipi-Clarke and Kiriona tonight. Moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman, it will be broadcast live at 7 pm on Whakaata Māori, MĀORI+, and the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page and YouTube channel.
The debate will explore the major issues across the Hauraki-Waikato electorate, which stretches from Hauraki and the Coromandel through the Waikato, including Hamilton, and down into parts of the King Country and Ōtorohanga, while also taking in parts of South Auckland.
It is home to the Kīngitanga, the Māori King Movement, which was established in the Waikato in the 1850s as a movement to unite Māori and provide a Māori centre of authority.
The latest poll was commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series.
It was conducted by Curia Market Research from September 21 to October 1. Curia also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.
The poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older enrolled in Hauraki-Waikato, including 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.
When undecided respondents were excluded, Maipi-Clarke received 54% of the decided electorate vote, compared with 31% for Kiriona and 15% recorded as “other”.
Strongest support among younger voters
Maipi-Clarke won Hauraki-Waikato from Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta in 2023, becoming New Zealand’s youngest MP in 170 years and ending Labour’s hold on the electorate since it was established in 2008.
The poll recorded that her strongest support came from younger voters. Maipi-Clarke was backed by 55% of respondents aged 18 to 39, compared with 38% of those aged 40 to 59 and 34% of those aged 60 and older.
Wāhine were also more likely than tāne to support her, at 51% compared with 38%.
61% said Maipi-Clarke had done a good job as the local MP over the past three years. Twenty-four% rated her performance as average, and 6% said she had done a poor job, giving her a net approval rating of plus 55 percentage points.
Her opponent at this election, Labour’s Kingi Kiriona, is a former journalist and Māori broadcasting and education leader, a member of the Waitangi Tribunal, and the founder of Māori education provider TupuOra.
Party vote too close to call
Maipi-Clarke’s large candidate-vote lead is not reflected in the party vote, where Te Pāti Māori and Labour are separated by just one percentage point.
Te Pāti Māori received 22%, Labour 21% and the Greens 16%, while 15% of respondents were undecided. The difference between Te Pāti Māori and Labour falls within the poll’s margin of error.
New Zealand First received 7%, followed by National on 5%. ACT and the Te Tai Tokerau Party each received 3%, while TOP received 2%.
The result comes as Te Pāti Māori campaigns for electorate votes for its candidates while encouraging supporters to give their party vote to a preferred party on the left, such as Labour or the Greens.
Excluding undecided respondents, Te Pāti Māori received 26% of the decided party vote, Labour 24% and the Greens 19%.
Compared with the 2023 election result, Labour’s share of the decided party vote fell 21 percentage points from 45%, while Green support rose 12 points from 7%.
Te Pāti Māori’s share fell seven points from 33% to 26%, while New Zealand First rose four points to 8%.
The poll also showed differences between age groups. Te Pāti Māori received 32% support among voters aged 18 to 39, compared with 14% among those aged 40 to 59 and 11% among those aged 60 and older.
Labour received 30% support among voters aged 40 to 59, compared with 12% among those aged 18 to 39.
Cost of living dominates voter concerns
The cost of living was the most important local issue that could affect respondents’ votes, selected by 35%.
Te Tiriti o Waitangi followed at 13%, while hauora and housing each received 10%.
When asked what the highest priority for the next incoming Government should be to improve Māori outcomes, 26% of respondents said honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi.
In second place at 24% was reducing poverty and homelessness, followed by improving health and education outcomes at 20%. Addressing the Māori unemployment rate received 12%, while support for mental health and drug addiction received 13% support.
