A new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll shows Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi holding a commanding lead in the Waiariki electorate.
Against three other candidates, Waititi is on 42%, with Green’s Tania Waikato on 16%, Labour’s Toni Boynton on 14%, and Opportunity Party’s Pāpā Wharewera on 3%.
A further 18% were undecided, while 6% chose “other”, indicating they preferred someone else.
The results come ahead of the Waiariki candidates debate tonight, which will be moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman. It will be broadcast live at 7pm on Whakaata Māori, MĀORI+, and the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page and YouTube channel.
The debate will explore the major issues across the Waiariki electorate, which stretches from the Bay of Plenty coast—including Tauranga and Whakatāne—through Rotorua and down into Taupō and the central Volcanic Plateau.
Whakaata Māori commissioned the latest poll as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series.
Curia Market Research conducted it from September 21 to October 1. Curia also polls for the National Party and the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union.
The poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older enrolled in Waiariki, including 420 by phone and 80 through an online panel. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.
When undecided respondents were removed, the candidates would jump up, with Waititi charging ahead to 52%.
Party vote too close to call
While Waititi is ahead in the individual candidate vote, the party-vote race is much closer.
The Labour Party leads a tight contest with 24%of the party vote, while Te Pāti Māori is following closely behind on 23% and the Green Party on 22%.
The Opportunities Party sits at 0% for the party vote despite Wharewera securing 3% as a preferred candidate.
A further 14 % of voters remain unsure on the party vote, leaving plenty of room for movement.
Demographic trends show that wāhine were more likely to back Labour than men, while tāne favoured Te Pāti Māori.
Older generations aged 60 and over supported Labour more strongly, whereas Te Pāti Māori found higher support among those aged between 18 and 39 years old.
Top issues for Waiariki voters
Voters across the electorate identified several important issues facing the region. The cost of living emerged as the biggest issue for 32% of Waiariki voters, and was notably higher among women at 38% compared to 26% for tāne.
This was followed by hauora at 11%, housing at 9%, and Te Tiriti o Waitangi and the environment registered 6% respectively.
Make sure to watch the Waiariki debate tonight, as all four candidates battle it out to convince Waiariki voters.
Watch from 7pm on Māori+, or live on the Te Ao Māori News website, Facebook and YouTube.
