Te Ao Māori News recaps the Whakaata Māori-Curia Polls ahead of Saturday.
With election night within reach, political parties and candidates are making their final push to win over undecided voters. This article recaps the Māori electorate candidate polls, party support trends among Māori voters, and key issues identified in the most recent general poll.
Please note that these polls represent a snapshot in time, and final election night results may differ. The exclusive polls were commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage series and were conducted by Curia Market Research.
Te Tai Tokerau: Green Party’s Hūhana Lyndon takes early lead
Starting in the north, Te Tai Tokerau could see history in the making, with Green Party candidate Hūhana Lyndon leading the race at 24%.
The Greens have never held a Māori electorate, meaning a win on November 7 would mark a historic milestone for the party.
Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime follows at 18%, with Te Pāti Māori candidate Aperahama Edwards close behind at 17%. Incumbent Te Tai Tokerau Party MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi trails at 12%. A notable 22% of respondents remain undecided, while 7% selected “other”.
- Polling Period: Conducted October 5 - October 15.
- Watch & Read: Read the full article here and watch the Te Tai Tokerau debate below.
Tāmaki Makaurau: Tight race between Orini Kaipara and Kerrin Leoni
Further south, Tāmaki Makaurau features a tight race between incumbent Te Pāti Māori MP Orini Kaipara and former Labour candidate Kerrin Leoni. Kaipara holds 33% support, with Leoni close behind at 31%.
Incumbent MP Kaipara was on 33%, with Leoni close behind on 31%.
Green Party candidate Florence Te Ohaere sits at 21%, while 9% of voters are undecided and 6% preferred another candidate. While Leoni was a Labour candidate when the poll and debate took place, she is now campaigning as an independent.
- Polling Period: Conducted between October 5 and 15.
- Watch & Read: Read the full article here and watch the Tāmaki Makaurau debate below.
Hauraki-Waikato: Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke commands the seat
In Kiingitanga land, incumbent Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke dominates the Hauraki-Waikato poll at 45%, compared to Labour candidate Kingi Kiriona, who holds 26%
A further 17% of voters remain undecided, while 13% chose “other”.
- Polling period: Conducted September 21 - October 1.
Read the full article here and watch the Hauraki- Waikato debate below.
Waiariki: Rawiri Waititi holds strong lead
Moving east to Waiariki, incumbent MP and Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi holds a commanding lead, mirroring the strong showing in Hauraki-Waikato.
Waititi received 42% support, placing him well ahead of Green Party candidate Tania Waikato (16%), Labour’s Toni Boynton (14%), and The Opportunity Party candidate Pāpā Wharewera (3%).
Meanwhile, 18% of voters remain undecided, and 6% indicated a preference for another candidate.
- Polling Period: Conducted from September 21 to October 1.
- Watch & Read: Read the full article here and watch the Waiariki debate below.
Ikaroa-Rāwhiti: Cushla Tangaere-Manuel leads for Labour
On the East Coast, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti continues to show loyalty to the Labour Party and its candidate.
Current MP Cushla Tangaere-Manuel leads the electorate with 40%, followed by Te Pāti Māori’s Haley Maxwell at 19% and the Greens’ Heather Te Au-Skipworth at 15%.
However, 20% of voters remain undecided, with 6% opting for other candidates.
- Polling Period: Conducted September 28 - October 8.
- Watch & Read: Read the full article here and watch the Waiariki debate below.
Te Tai Hauāuru: Debbie Ngarewa-Packer out in front
Heading west to Te Tai Hauāuru, Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer leads the charge.
The incumbent MP commands 38% of the candidate vote, followed by Labour’s Te Pūoho Katene at 27% and National’s Coral Raukawa at 10%
Meanwhile, 18% of voters have yet to decide, and 6% selected “other”. Ngarewa-Packer recently resumed campaigning after taking time away to care for her mother, who has since passed away—an absence that also saw her miss the electorate debate.
- Polling Period: Conducted from September 14 to September 24.
- Watch & Read: Read the full article here and watch the Te Tai Hauāuru debate below.
Te Tai Tonga: Labour’s Mananui Ramsden edges ahead in tight contest
In Te Tai Tonga, the country’s largest electorate by geographical area, polling suggests the seat could return to Labour hands.
Labour’s Mananui Ramsden leads with 30%, followed by Te Pāti Māori candidate Lisa Marie Murch at 17% and Green candidate Lisa Te Morenga at 16%.
Incumbent Te Tai Tonga MP Takuta Ferris, formerly of Te Pāti Māori and now standing as an independent, sits at 15%. Undecided voters make up 17% of the electorate, while 5% prefer another candidate. and 5% preferred another candidate.
- Polling Period: Conducted September 14 - September 25
- Watch & Read: Read the full article here and watch the Te Tai Tonga debate below.
Party Support and Key Issues: Cost of living tops voter concerns
In a general poll surveying 613 Māori voters across both the general and Māori rolls, Labour received the highest level of party support at 34%.
The Greens followed in second at 18%, with NZ First at 9%, Te Pāti Māori at 8%, National at 7%, The Opportunity Party at 4%, and ACT at 3%. A small portion of respondents were unsure (6%) or declined to answer (2%).
- Read the full article here and watch the Māori Leaders debate below.
Cost of Living top of voters’ minds
The poll confirmed that the cost of living remains the single biggest issue for Māori voters, cited by 48% of respondents.
Health and housing affordability tied for second place at 8% each, followed by issues surrounding Te Tiriti o Waitangi at 7%
- Polling Period: Conducted October 15 - October 22.
Tune in to Election Night:
Tune in to Whakatau 2026 Election Night on November 7 at 7 pm, hosted by Maiki Sherman and Julian Wilcox. Watch live on Māori+, the Te Ao Māori News website, Facebook, and YouTube.
