A new Whakaata Māori-Curia poll reveals that 64% of Hauraki-Waikato voters want the Kīngitanga embedded directly into New Zealand’s political and constitutional system.
Commissioned by Whakaata Māori as part of its Whakatau 2026 election coverage and conducted by Curia Market Research between September 21 and October 1, the poll surveyed 500 Māori voters aged 18 and older in Hauraki-Waikato. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.
Support for constitutional integration was particularly strong among younger respondents, with 73% of 18–39-year-olds backing a formal role, compared with 49% of those aged 60 and over.
For Tukoroirangi Morgan, Maangai o te Kiingitanga, the strong support comes as no surprise:
“Kei te kakā te ahi o te Kīngitanga i roto i te ngākau ō tena, ō tena, ō tena,” Morgan says.
“Ki nga tāngata pēra ia Kingi Kiriona, ia Hana-Rāwhiti mā... ko te kaupapa o te Kīngitanga kei roto i ngā mahi katoa, kāore e taea te wetewete.”
Te Pāti Māori MP, Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, wants that influence codified into legislative power, pointing directly to the parliamentary oath she swore to Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the Kīngitanga, and Kīngi Tuheitia:
“How come we can’t get our laws that affect us as Māori signed by Te Arikinui our most paramount?” Maipi-Clarke asks.
“We are our sovereign of our country, and we have our monarchy, our Kīngitanga, koirā! me Te Arikinui.”
Maipi-Clarke leads
The poll shows incumbent MP Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke leading Labour candidate Kingi Kiriona in Hauraki-Waikato, capturing 45% of the candidate vote compared to Kiriona’s 26% (with 17% undecided and 13% choosing “other”).
Reflecting on a heavy term in Parliament, Maipi-Clarke highlights her grassroots backing across the rohe:
“Kua tau ngā piropiro nā runga anō i te mea ahakoa ngā taumahatanga o tēnei kāwanatanga, mō te toru tau... nā tōku iwi, nā te kāina anō hoki i poipoia i ahau mō ngā hīkoi i Kirikiriroa.”
Polling data shows her strongest support comes from younger voters, with 55% of 18–39-year-olds and 51% of wāhine backing her.
Overall, 61% of voters said she had done a good job as local MP over the past three years, giving her a net approval rating of +55 percentage points.
Her primary focus remains on mobilising tens of thousands of unenrolled rangatahi aged 18 to 24 across the electorate.
For Labour challenger Kingi Kiriona, a former journalist, educator, and Waitangi Tribunal member, the numbers highlight the mahi required ahead of election day.
“He tatauranga kotahi noa iho, nō reira, kāore au e hinga, e tāpapa i te tatauranga kotahi noa iho... engari ko te tohu kei roto he mahi kei mua tonu i te aroaro me mahi,” Kiriona says.
With 17% of voters undecided, Kiriona sees a clear window.
“Kei te rongo ahau i te rangirua o te rohe ko wai ō māua hei māngai mō rātou. E whai wāhi ana ahau ki ngā wāhi kāore anō kia torohia, kei te ara tika mātou ahakoa te kōrero o te tatauranga… ko te tohu pea kei roto me kaha ake te oma i te huarahi.”
Party vote and strategic tensions
While Maipi-Clarke leads the candidate race, the party vote tells a tighter story, with Te Pāti Māori at 22%, Labour at 21%, the Greens at 16%, and 15% of voters undecided.
This race reflects Te Pāti Māori’s split-vote strategy, encouraging whānau to back local electorate candidates while directing party votes toward the wider left bloc. Kiriona questions whether this strategy provides clear direction for families:
“Kāore au e mōhio mehemea e marama ana te rautaki rā ki ngā whānau nā te mea kei tērā tatauranga e kī ana kei te ū tonu ngā whānau ki te Pāti Māori.”
He points to post-election leverage as a key reason to back Labour.
“Inā toa te taha maui i tēnei pōtitanga ko te rōpū tuatahi ki te tepu ko te rōpū Reipa, nō reira inā hiahia reo, tangata rānei ki tēnā tepu koinā ki ahau nei tētahi take nui me pōti pēnei.”
Despite the political contest, Maipi-Clarke emphasises a shared aspiration on the ground.
“I can confidently say that they want this government out and they want to see me back in Parliament and they want to see Kingi in Parliament, and they want us to see us working together.”
Key voter issues
When asked about the local issues driving their vote, 35% of respondents pointed to the cost of living, followed by Te Tiriti o Waitangi at 13%, and hauora and housing recording 10% each.
When looking at the highest priority for the incoming government to improve Māori outcomes, honouring Te Tiriti led at 26%, closely followed by reducing poverty and homelessness at 24%.
The results come ahead of a head-to-head debate between Maipi-Clarke and Kiriona tonight. Moderated by Julian Wilcox and Maiki Sherman, it will be broadcast live at 7 pm on Whakaata Māori, MĀORI+, and the Te Ao Māori News Facebook page and YouTube channel.
