The countdown to Election Day is on, with many reflecting on the past three years in politics.
One of the biggest political events was the Treaty Principles Bill, which sparked the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti and grew into a nationwide movement.
So, who should define the principles of Te Tiriti in New Zealand law?
According to the latest Whakaata Māori and Curia poll, 64% of Waiariki voters believe Māori and the Crown should work together to define the Treaty principles.
Conducted among 500 eligible voters in the electorate, the maximum margin of error is plus or minus 4.5% at the 95% confidence level.
“All our people want is for Te Tiriti to be respected and for Te Tiriti to be upheld,” says Green Party candidate for Waiariki, Tania Waikato.
“They don’t want these things that the Government has been scaremongering about, and that is total control by Māori, and I think what this particular poll shows is that the willingness for everyone to work together has always been there.”
Waikato is contesting the Waiariki seat against Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, Labour’s Toni Boynton and The Opportunity Party’s Pāpā Wharewera.
Waititi says the result reflects Te Pāti Māori’s vision and policies for creating an ‘Aotearoa Hou’.
“Tō mātou nei kaupapa here mō te whakapou i Te Tiriti o Waitangi ki roto i te ture, [kia] taea anō hoki e tātou te waihanga i tēnei Aotearoa hou.”
Boynton says Labour leader Chris Hipkins has indicated that the party’s position on Te Tiriti depends on the issue.
“If it’s to do with legislation – we are committed to restoring what this Government is taking away,” she explains.
“When it comes to constitutional reform or looking more closely at Treaty relations, then we all agree that Māori and Crown should work together.”
Candidate vote
The poll shows Waititi continues to lead the Waiariki candidate vote, with 42% support.
“Ka noho whakaiti i roto i ngā tātai whika, engari kia mōhio mai tātau - ko Waiariki te rohe Māori ake nei. Ae ngā tātai whika kua puta kei te kite, kua Māori tonu tō tātau noho.”
At the 2023 election, Waititi retained the seat with a 15,891-vote majority, receiving 21,500 votes compared with 5,609 for Boynton.
He is followed by Waikato on 16%, Boynton on 14% and Wharewera on 3%.
Waikato is the Greens’ first candidate to contest the Waiariki seat, while Boynton is running for a second time. Wharewera is also making his debut.
“I honestly believe that if I’m meant to be the MP for Te Waiariki then I will be, if I’m meant to be the list MP for the Green Party then I will be,” she says.
Waikato says her main priority is to respond to and represent her people.
“For me it’s about offering my service to our people first before I offer it anywhere else.”
Boynton says she is not surprised by the support for Te Pāti Māori and the Greens.
“We have to understand that the Greens have not run a member candidate in the Waiariki seat before, and so there is a big shift from our Māori voters towards the Green Party,” she adds.
“And if [Te Pāti Māori] are saying to give your vote away, then we are seeing a shift there.”
A further 18% of voters remain undecided.
The poll also shows a gender and age divide in support for Waititi. Men were more likely than wāhine to support him, at 52% compared with 33%.
His support was also highest among voters aged 18–39, at 55%.
Party vote
The party vote is much closer among the left-leaning parties.
Labour leads on 24%, followed by Te Pāti Māori on 23% and the Greens on 21%. NZ First and National are both on 5%, while 14% remain undecided.
The Greens have never held this seat, but Waikato believes they could provide solutions to the challenges Waiariki whānau face.
“Te Pāti Kākāriki has our best interests at heart,” she says.
“When it comes to cost of living issues – particularly the cost of kai, cost of fuel, transport, housing – those are policies that our party is really strong on.”
Despite Te Pāti Māori’s campaign urging supporters to split their vote and give their candidate vote only, the party continues to record strong support in Waiariki.
“[He] tino Māori ake nei tēnei rohe, and kei te mohio awahau ngā mea kei te āhua uaua rātau te karawhiu i tō rātau pōti ki tētahi atu,” Waititi explains.
“Kei te tarae tonu au ki te kōrero ki wāku ake, kia whaingia te rautaki.”
Women were more likely than men to support Labour, at 31% compared with 17%.
Men were more likely to support Te Pāti Māori, at 36% compared with 12% of women.
Waikato says that, regardless of who Māori voters choose, her message remains clear.
“To get as many of our people enrolled as possible.”
The Waiariki Candidate Debates will air live on Te Ao Māori News and Whakaata Māori at 7pm tonight.
